701
FXUS62 KTBW 222333
AFDTBW

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tampa Bay Ruskin FL
733 PM EDT Wed May 22 2024

...New AVIATION...

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 727 PM EDT Wed May 22 2024

VFR conditions prevail across terminals through the period. Winds
become easterly to northeast overnight and winds speeds should
generally decrease. By the afternoon sea breeze shifts winds from
the west to northwest on Thursday. Otherwise, no ceilings/vis
restrictions anticipated.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 234 PM EDT Wed May 22 2024

The peninsula is currently wedged between a mid level trough the
extends over the Western Atlantic and a ridge that is building
across the Gulf. A surface high is also draped over the area, aiding
in the suppression of moisture. The mid level ridge will continue to
move over through the end of the week, further suppressing any rain
chances. Memorial Day weekend is looking to be very warm with
minimal rain chances. If outdoor activities are the agenda for
the holiday weekend remember to stay hydrated and take frequent
breaks inside or in the shade.

Heading into next week, rain chances increase slightly as the
surface high shifts out into the Atlantic and a trough aloft moves
over the area. This will create a W-SW flow, which will favor inland
shower activity. Unfortunately the low to mid 90s look to hang
around for the foreseeable future.

&&


.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TPA  75  91  76  91 /   0  10   0  10
FMY  73  93  76  93 /  20  20  10  20
GIF  70  94  73  95 /   0  10   0  10
SRQ  74  91  75  91 /  10  10   0  10
BKV  66  94  68  93 /   0   0   0  10
SPG  78  90  78  90 /   0   0   0  10

&&

Sea Breeze Thunderstorm Regime For Thursday: 6
Sea Breeze Thunderstorm Regime For Friday: 1

For additional information on sea breeze regimes, go to:
     https://www.weather.gov/tbw/ThunderstormClimatology

&&

.TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
Gulf waters...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION/AVIATION...Delerme/Pearce
DECISION SUPPORT/UPPER AIR/CLIMATE...RDavis