Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Tampa Bay Area, FL
Issued by NWS Tampa Bay Area, FL
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093 FXUS62 KTBW 241844 AFDTBW Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Tampa Bay Ruskin FL 244 PM EDT Fri May 24 2024 ...New DISCUSSION, AVIATION, MARINE, FIRE WEATHER... .DISCUSSION... Issued at 240 PM EDT Fri May 24 2024 Hot, muggy, and mostly dry will be the story for the holiday weekend and into early next week. Strong ridging across the Eastern U.S. is leading to above normal temperatures and continued dry conditions for the Sunshine State. As a shortwave approaches the region, moisture will begin to increase this afternoon. This will lead to relative humidity values around 40 percent and feels like temperatures in the upper 90s to 100 degrees. A westerly sea breeze this afternoon will help to make the warm temperatures more bearable. Westerly flow on Saturday along with PWATs over 1.5 inches and shortwave energy could lead to a few scattered showers and thunderstorms across the interior. The warming trend will continue through the weekend and into next week with temperatures approaching record territory. Widespread high temperatures in the middle 90s are expected, with locations across interior Florida reaching into the upper 90s. A few spots may even approach the 100 degree mark this holiday weekend. A frontal boundary will approach the area on Tuesday bringing slightly increasing chances of rainfall on Tuesday afternoon. The better chances will remain over central Florida with around 40 percent chance of storms. This front will bring little relief from the heat with highs in the lower to middle 90s expected the rest of the week. && .AVIATION... (18Z TAFS) Issued at 240 PM EDT Fri May 24 2024 Winds turning onshore this afternoon and increasing slightly, remaining between 10-15 kts with a couple of higher gusts possible. Light and variable winds overnight with westerly winds expected Saturday morning through the end of the period. VFR conditions expected with no other concerns. && .MARINE... Issued at 240 PM EDT Fri May 24 2024 Southeasterly winds this morning will turn onshore this afternoon near the coast. Winds shift to the west for the weekend as the ridge axis shifts south. With high pressure dominating the weather pattern, dry conditions are expected into early next week. A weak cold front will push into the area Tuesday, with a few showers and storms possible. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 240 PM EDT Fri May 24 2024 Above average temperatures continue through the period. A few inland locations could see RH values approach critical thresholds today, otherwise increasing moisture will keep values in the 40-50 percent range this weekend and upcoming week. A few storms are possible inland for Saturday later afternoon, otherwise dry through Monday with highs in the lower to mid 90s. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... TPA 78 91 76 92 / 0 0 0 0 FMY 76 93 75 92 / 10 20 0 10 GIF 73 96 72 97 / 10 30 0 10 SRQ 76 91 75 92 / 0 0 0 0 BKV 70 92 69 94 / 0 10 0 10 SPG 80 89 79 89 / 0 0 0 0 && Sea Breeze Thunderstorm Regime For Saturday: 4 Sea Breeze Thunderstorm Regime For Sunday: 1 For additional information on sea breeze regimes, go to: https://www.weather.gov/tbw/ThunderstormClimatology && .TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...None. Gulf waters...None. && $$ DISCUSSION/AVIATION/MARINE/FIRE WEATHER...ADavis DECISION SUPPORT/UPPER AIR...Shiveley