150
FXUS62 KTBW 310038
AFDTBW

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tampa Bay Ruskin FL
838 PM EDT Thu May 30 2024

...New UPDATE, AVIATION...

.UPDATE...
Issued at 835 PM EDT Thu May 30 2024

After record setting heat for six of our climate sites this
afternoon, including 101 degrees at Punta Gorda (KPGD), storms
erupted over areas primarily south of I-4 and particularly in
Charlotte and Lee counties, with wind gusts in excess of 50 mph
along with hail just under an inch in diameter. Radar derived
rainfall estimates across those counties was generally in the 1-3
inch range, with a few gauges reporting 2-3 inches, which likely
produced ponding on roadways and poor drainage or low lying areas.
Fortunately that activity has waned over the last hour or so
although a few showers and storms have re-fired during that time
over southern Polk and northern Hardee counties as a northward
propagating boundary from the earlier SWFL convection intersected
the east coast sea breeze moving westward across the area. An
overall diminishing trend should continue with the loss of daytime
heating, with easterly winds settling in for the overnight period
with overnight lows in the mid 60s north and upper 60s to mid 70s
central and south. Another hot day on tap for Friday although
perhaps a degree or two cooler for most locations outside of SWFL,
where highs in the mid to upper 90s remain likely, with lower to
mid 90s elsewhere. Afternoon and evening showers and storms will
once again be likely, with highest chances south of I-4.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 255 PM EDT Thu May 30 2024

A weak cold front is expected to sit over the area today and
tomorrow. This will help to bring shower chances back into the
forecast. For today the main focus will be southwest Florida with
the rest of the area saying dry. We have already set heat records
for many sites across the area. For tomorrow we will see more of an
easterly breeze that should keep the west coast seabreeze closer to
our coast. This along with the weak front bringing some extra
moisture should allow some scattered showers and isolated
thunderstorms across the area.

This front will finish pushing through late Friday. This will once
again bring drier air for the weekend and keep rain showers out of
the forecast for everyone expect those in Southwest Florida. Once
again we will be talking about near to record breaking temperatures
through the weekend.

The record heat will continue for next week. We will see a small
increase in moisture which should bring isolated thunderstorm
chances each afternoon but will remain on the lower end.

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 750 PM EDT Thu May 30 2024

Evening convection continues to wind down over the next hour or
two at FMY/RSW, otherwise VFR expected through overnight into
Friday afternoon before next round of diurnal activity brings
chance of MVFR/IFR conditions as afternoon and evening showers and
storms develop with impacts to terminals possible. Winds become
easterly overnight and remain into afternoon before turning
onshore at coastal terminals as the sea breeze develops and
propagates inland. Winds generally 5-10 knots, highest during
afternoon and variable/gusty in/near thunderstorms.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 255 PM EDT Thu May 30 2024

Winds will generally stay below 10 knots throughout the
rest of the week as a weak cold front is draped across the area.
Some isolated showers and storms will be possible both days. As we
go throughout the weekend the frontal system will pass resulting in
winds increasing out of the east between 15 to 20 knots. Winds
should start to calm down and shift more out of the south starting

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 255 PM EDT Thu May 30 2024

We will continue to see drier conditions each afternoon
across the area with pockets of critical RHs each day. However winds
will remain light resulting in no need for Red Flag Warnings.
Isolated shower activity will be possible the next two days before
drying out once again for the weekend.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TPA  76  94  75  94 /  10  40  10  10
FMY  74  95  73  94 /  40  60  20  20
GIF  72  94  71  92 /  10  40  10  10
SRQ  73  95  73  97 /  10  40  20  20
BKV  67  94  67  94 /  10  30  10  10
SPG  79  93  78  94 /  10  40  20  10

&&

Sea Breeze Thunderstorm Regime For Friday: 6
Sea Breeze Thunderstorm Regime For Saturday: 3

For additional information on sea breeze regimes, go to:
     https://www.weather.gov/tbw/ThunderstormClimatology

&&

.TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
Gulf waters...None.

&&

$$

UPDATE/AVIATION...Hurt
DISCUSSION/MARINE/FIRE WEATHER...Shiveley
DECISION SUPPORT/UPPER AIR/CLIMATE...Giarratana