Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Tampa Bay Area, FL
Issued by NWS Tampa Bay Area, FL
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185 FXUS62 KTBW 180750 AFDTBW Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Tampa Bay Ruskin FL 350 AM EDT Sat May 18 2024 ...New DISCUSSION, AVIATION, MARINE, FIRE WEATHER... .DISCUSSION... Issued at 342 AM EDT Sat May 18 2024 For the weekend a cold front will start to push through the southeast. Ahead of it a shortwave is expected to once again push through the Panhandle and head west. The big difference from yesterday morning storms is the line looks to be a little more south but still should stay north of I-4. Timing looks to also be a little later focusing more on the early afternoon hours with severe weather possible. Areas south of I-4 will avoid the rain but will not be able to escape the heat with highs in the interior in the mid to upper 90`s with head index in the low to mid 100`s. The actually front looks to start pushing through the area Sunday morning with more widespread showers possible throughout much of the area during the morning and afternoon hours. We will once again be looking at an isolate severe weather threat as the front pushes through. Troughing will remain over the area for Monday and Tuesday mainly resulting in seabreeze storms in the interior during the late afternoon and evening hours. Ridging looks to return for Wednesday through Friday resulting in more subsidence and keeping us dry but hot across the area. | && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 342 AM EDT Sat May 18 2024 VFR conditions expected through the period. Can`t rule out a shower or two in the afternoon for TPA or PIE but chances are to low to add to TAF. Winds will starting getting gusty out the southwest starting late in the afternoon and continuing through the afternoon. && .MARINE... Issued at 342 AM EDT Sat May 18 2024 Winds will remain out of the south and southwest throughout the weekend ahead of a cold front that will push through late on Sunday. A few showers will be possible in our northern waters this afternoon with more widespread shower activity expected Sunday morning and afternoon. Winds will shift more northerly for the start of next week with shower activity staying in the interior part of the state. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 342 AM EDT Sat May 18 2024 Cold front will be heading our way this weekend mainly bringing showers to the area on Sunday. Drier air will filter in behind the front giving some possible critical RHs on Monday in the interior south of I-4. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... TPA 91 77 86 75 / 30 40 70 20 FMY 93 78 90 76 / 10 30 50 30 GIF 94 75 88 72 / 30 40 70 20 SRQ 90 77 86 74 / 10 40 60 30 BKV 93 73 86 68 / 40 50 70 10 SPG 89 78 84 77 / 20 40 70 20 && For additional information on sea breeze regimes, go to: https://www.weather.gov/tbw/ThunderstormClimatology && .TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...None. Gulf waters...None. && $$ DISCUSSION/AVIATION/MARINE/FIRE WEATHER...Shiveley DECISION SUPPORT...Wynn UPPER AIR/CLIMATE...Wynn