Routine Space Environment Product (Daily)
Issued by NWS
Issued by NWS
558 FXXX10 KWNP 201231 DAYTDF :Product: 3-Day Forecast :Issued: 2024 May 20 1230 UTC # Prepared by the US Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center # Product description and SWPC contact on the Web # http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/wwire.html # # 3-Day Forecast # A. NOAA Geomagnetic Activity Observation and Forecast The greatest observed 3 hr Kp over the past 24 hours was 3 (below NOAA Scale levels). The greatest expected 3 hr Kp for May 20-May 22 2024 is 6.67 (NOAA Scale G3). NOAA Kp index breakdown May 20-May 22 2024 May 20 May 21 May 22 00-03UT 1.33 4.00 1.67 03-06UT 2.67 3.67 1.33 06-09UT 2.33 3.00 4.67 (G1) 09-12UT 1.67 2.67 6.67 (G3) 12-15UT 4.67 (G1) 3.00 5.67 (G2) 15-18UT 4.67 (G1) 2.67 4.67 (G1) 18-21UT 4.00 2.67 4.67 (G1) 21-00UT 4.00 2.67 4.33 Rationale: G1 geomagnetic storms are likely on day 1 (May 20) from a brush with a transient solar feature that left the Sun on 17 May. G1-G3 storm levels are possible on day three due to transient influences from a CME from 20 May. B. NOAA Solar Radiation Activity Observation and Forecast Solar radiation, as observed by NOAA GOES-18 over the past 24 hours, was below S-scale storm level thresholds. Solar Radiation Storm Forecast for May 20-May 22 2024 May 20 May 21 May 22 S1 or greater 10% 10% 10% Rationale: A slight chance for S1 (Minor) or greater solar radiation storms are from Region 3685 is expected through the period. C. NOAA Radio Blackout Activity and Forecast Radio blackouts reaching the R1 levels were observed over the past 24 hours. The largest was at May 19 2024 1756 UTC. Radio Blackout Forecast for May 20-May 22 2024 May 20 May 21 May 22 R1-R2 55% 55% 50% R3 or greater 10% 10% 10% Rationale: R1 (Minor) to R2 (Moderate) radio blackouts are likely from Region 3685 for days 1-2 of the forecast period, diminishing to a chance on day 3 (May 22).