991
FXXX10 KWNP 281231
DAYTDF

:Product: 3-Day Forecast
:Issued: 2024 May 28 1230 UTC
# Prepared by the US Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center
# Product description and SWPC contact on the Web
# http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/wwire.html
#
#             3-Day Forecast
#
A. NOAA Geomagnetic Activity Observation and Forecast

The greatest observed 3 hr Kp over the past 24 hours was 3 (below NOAA
Scale levels).
The greatest expected 3 hr Kp for May 28-May 30 2024 is 4.00 (below NOAA
Scale levels).

NOAA Kp index breakdown May 28-May 30 2024

             May 28       May 29       May 30
00-03UT       2.67         2.00         3.00
03-06UT       2.00         1.67         2.67
06-09UT       2.00         2.00         2.00
09-12UT       1.00         2.00         1.67
12-15UT       1.33         2.33         1.33
15-18UT       2.00         3.67         1.67
18-21UT       2.00         4.00         2.00
21-00UT       2.00         2.67         2.00

Rationale: No G1 (Minor) or greater geomagnetic storms are expected.  No
significant transient or recurrent solar wind features are forecast.

B. NOAA Solar Radiation Activity Observation and Forecast

Solar radiation, as observed by NOAA GOES-18 over the past 24 hours, was
below S-scale storm level thresholds.

Solar Radiation Storm Forecast for May 28-May 30 2024

              May 28  May 29  May 30
S1 or greater   10%     10%     10%

Rationale: There is a slight chance for a greater than 10 MeV proton
event exceeding the S1 (Minor) threshold on 28-30 May due to the flare
potential of Regions 3691 and 3697.

C. NOAA Radio Blackout Activity and Forecast

No radio blackouts were observed over the past 24 hours.

Radio Blackout Forecast for May 28-May 30 2024

              May 28        May 29        May 30
R1-R2           60%           60%           60%
R3 or greater   30%           30%           30%

Rationale: Occasional R1/R2 (Minor-Moderate) Radio Blackouts are likely
with a chance for isolated R3 (Strong) Radio Blackouts through 30 May.