Routine Space Environment Product (Daily)
Issued by NWS
Issued by NWS
983
FXXX10 KWNP 310031
DAYTDF
:Product: 3-Day Forecast
:Issued: 2024 May 31 0030 UTC
# Prepared by the US Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center
# Product description and SWPC contact on the Web
# http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/wwire.html
#
# 3-Day Forecast
#
A. NOAA Geomagnetic Activity Observation and Forecast
The greatest observed 3 hr Kp over the past 24 hours was 3 (below NOAA
Scale levels).
The greatest expected 3 hr Kp for May 31-Jun 02 2024 is 6.00 (NOAA Scale
G2).
NOAA Kp index breakdown May 31-Jun 02 2024
May 31 Jun 01 Jun 02
00-03UT 1.67 5.67 (G2) 1.67
03-06UT 1.33 5.00 (G1) 1.33
06-09UT 1.33 4.33 1.33
09-12UT 1.33 3.00 1.33
12-15UT 1.33 2.33 1.67
15-18UT 4.67 (G1) 2.00 1.33
18-21UT 6.00 (G2) 2.67 1.33
21-00UT 5.33 (G1) 2.33 1.67
Rationale: NG1-G2 (Minor-Moderate) geomagnetic storming is likely to
commence by late 31 May and continue into 01 Jun due to flanking CME
effects from the aforementioned X1.4 flare and subsequent CME eruption
of 29 May.
B. NOAA Solar Radiation Activity Observation and Forecast
Solar radiation, as observed by NOAA GOES-18 over the past 24 hours, was
below S-scale storm level thresholds.
Solar Radiation Storm Forecast for May 31-Jun 02 2024
May 31 Jun 01 Jun 02
S1 or greater 25% 25% 25%
Rationale: There is a chance for a greater than 10 MeV proton event
exceeding the S1 (Minor) threshold through 02 Jun, primarily due to the
flare potential of Regions 3691 and 3697.
C. NOAA Radio Blackout Activity and Forecast
Radio blackouts reaching the R1 levels were observed over the past 24
hours. The largest was at May 30 2024 0713 UTC.
Radio Blackout Forecast for May 31-Jun 02 2024
May 31 Jun 01 Jun 02
R1-R2 75% 75% 75%
R3 or greater 35% 35% 35%
Rationale: Occasional R1-R2 (Minor-Moderate) Radio Blackouts are
expected, with a chance for isolated R3 (Strong) Radio Blackouts, on 31
May-02 Jun due to the flaring potential of Regions 3691 and 3697.