Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Great Falls, MT
Issued by NWS Great Falls, MT
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944 FXUS65 KTFX 081533 AFDTFX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Great Falls MT 933 AM MDT Sat Jun 8 2024 .SYNOPSIS... Quiet weather conditions today with cooler temperatures across North Central Montana this weekend. A few general thunderstorms and scattered rain showers develop Sunday night into Monday across Southwest and North Central Montana. Then a quieter weather pattern returns with near normal temperatures and a few days seeing breezy conditions next week. && .UPDATE... No changes have been made to the forecast this morning aside from running the hourly temperatures with the observed lows from this morning. Ludwig && .AVIATION... 08/12Z TAF Period Passing disturbances within a northwesterly flow aloft will maintain periodic mostly mid- and high level cloudiness over the next 24 hours. Primarily VFR conditions are expected, but lower clouds will introduce lower VFR CIGs at times for northern areas and mountain obscuration will increase along the Northern Rocky Mountain Front after 09/00Z. Northerly breezes return this afternoon, especially for northern areas and the north to south oriented southwest valleys. - RCG Refer to weather.gov/zlc for more detailed regional aviation weather and hazard information. && .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 535 AM MDT Sat Jun 8 2024/ Today through Monday afternoon... Another cold front moves through our region this afternoon bringing another day of pleasant weather and cooler than normal (comfortable) temperatures. Dry conditions continue today with our next weather system moving into Southwest Montana tomorrow afternoon bringing scattered rain showers and a few thunderstorms, especially along the MT/ID border through Sunday night. Primary concerns with any developed thunderstorm on Sunday afternoon and evening is a brief downpour, lightning, and gusty winds. A few thunderstorms could become strong but not severe along the MT/ID border where the primary concern is rainfall amounts between 0.25 and 0.5 inches. Some high resolution model guidances are suggesting even higher rainfall amounts for Sunday night into Monday morning, as precipitable water amounts are 1 to 2 standard deviations above normal that`s in agreement with an ensemble member (NAEFS) for the trend of increasing precipitation with some storms during this time period. We`ll continue to monitor the latest data and update QPF (Quantitative Precipitation Forecast) if forecast model trends continue to support some heavier rainfall amounts in stronger storms. The weather system will move northeast across Central and North Central Montana through the overnight hours Sunday into Monday morning bringing scattered rain showers. Through the morning hours and early afternoon Monday, the weather system departs to our east with a quick different weather system moving in from Canada along the Hi-line for Monday afternoon where a few very light rain showers could occur. Monday night through Friday... Upper level ridging is currently favored by ensemble model guidance to build back for our region Monday night that lasts through at least Wednesday. Surface high pressure will contribute to mostly sunny skies and near normal temperatures. Windy and breezy conditions are favored for Tuesday and Wednesday afternoon with latest National Blend of Model 4.2 probabilistic data suggesting wind gusts reaching 40 mph is high (greater than 75 percent) for along the Rocky Mountain Front. Past the Cut Bank area along the Hi-Line, probabilities decrease for wind gusts reaching over 40 mph during the Tuesday afternoon and evening timeframe to below 50 percent. Relative humidity values on Wednesday could reach into the teens, but fire weather concerns at this time are low even with breezy conditions on Wednesday afternoon. Beyond Thursday, uncertainty grows with ensemble model guidance on when upper level ridging begins to break down and move out of our area. Webb && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... GTF 70 45 69 50 / 0 0 10 60 CTB 65 40 64 46 / 10 10 0 30 HLN 81 50 75 54 / 0 0 20 60 BZN 80 47 74 50 / 0 10 30 70 WYS 76 44 73 47 / 0 10 50 70 DLN 82 48 75 51 / 0 0 50 70 HVR 68 43 67 49 / 10 10 0 50 LWT 69 43 68 47 / 10 10 10 60 && .TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ http://www.weather.gov/greatfalls