Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Great Falls, MT
Issued by NWS Great Falls, MT
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271 FXUS65 KTFX 071714 AFDTFX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Great Falls MT 1120 AM MDT Fri Jun 7 2024 .SYNOPSIS... A weak cold front will continue moving southward through the region today through early Sunday, bringing scattered clouds and slightly cooler temperatures, primarily for northern areas. The trend for mostly dry conditions are expected until a passing weather disturbance brings a better chance showers and thunderstorms late Sunday into Monday. && .Update... A cold front has pushed south through the plains of Central Montana as of this update, and will continue to advance south through the valleys of Central and Southwest Montana through the afternoon hours today. Main impact from this front will be gusty north winds for a couple of hours with and behind its passage, in addition to cooler temperatures. High temperatures over the plains of North Central and North Central Montana will be some 10 to 15 degrees cooler than yesterday, with the valleys of Central and North Central Montana being within 5 degrees of yesterday`s highs. While a few light sprinkles/showers can`t be ruled out in wake of the cold front, especially in the mountains, predominately dry conditions will persist across the Northern Rockies through today. The on-going forecast is handling the passage of this cold front well. - Moldan && .AVIATION... 07/18Z TAF Period VFR conditions will continue through the next 24 hours as upper level ridging remains over the area. Watch for a few SHRA over the higher terrain of SW MT near the MT/ID border, but no impacts to terminals are expected at this time. Ludwig Refer to weather.gov/zlc for more detailed regional aviation weather and hazard information. && .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 526 AM MDT Fri Jun 7 2024/ A northwesterly flow aloft will persist through the first half of the weekend, while a cold front slowly moves southward. This will initially bring slightly cooler temperatures, northerly breezes, and variable cloudiness to northern areas before the front moves deeper into the southwest and cools things down there Saturday night into Sunday. Aside from an isolated storm or two over the southwest, generally dry weather is expected until later Sunday afternoon and evening when a passing shortwave begins to exert an influence over the Northern Rockies. Scattered shower and thunderstorm activity will expand in a southwest to northeast fashion, peaking in coverage on Monday. Timing is not very favorable for strong to severe storms at this time, but forecast soundings for Monday do indicate that gusty winds may accompany some storms with modest instability and inverted V profiles, mostly over Central and Southwest MT. Ensembles are in fairly good agreement with transient ridging moving in on Tuesday and boosting temperatures to around 10 to 15 degrees above average before a more zonal sets up for the mid-week period and cools things down closer to average and increases winds. Aside from a few afternoon and evening showers/thunderstorms, mostly dry conditions can be expected through early Friday. There is some concern for low relative humidity and gusty winds on Tuesday and Wednesday, although grassland fuels still have some moisture to give for now. Most ensemble suites highlight a Pacific trough bringing unsettled conditions for next weekend, but there a significant disagreements regarding position, timing, and depth. - RCG && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... GTF 69 45 70 45 / 0 0 0 0 CTB 65 42 66 40 / 10 10 0 0 HLN 80 50 77 49 / 0 0 0 0 BZN 80 47 77 47 / 0 0 0 0 WYS 76 43 75 43 / 10 10 0 0 DLN 81 47 81 48 / 0 0 0 0 HVR 69 45 70 43 / 10 0 0 0 LWT 68 45 68 42 / 0 10 0 0 && .TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ http://www.weather.gov/greatfalls