764
FXUS65 KTFX 070039
AFDTFX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Great Falls MT
635 PM MDT Thu Jun 6 2024

UPDATED AVIATION SECTION

.SYNOPSIS...

Mainly sunny, warm and dry conditions with relatively light winds
are expected today before a weak cold front brings a return to
near normal temperatures across the Plains. While temperatures are
generally expected to warm next week, there is unusually high
uncertainty as a few weak systems try to push through the area.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

Key Points:

-Slight cooldown across the plains tomorrow

-Temperatures generally expected to rise next week, though there
is unusually high uncertainty in the forecast beyond Sunday

-Multiple chances for showers and thunderstorms through next
week, mainly across Southwestern Montana

Through Saturday As a weak area of high pressure traverses the
area today, skies have been nearly crystal clear as temperatures
have pushed into the 70s across North Central and Southwestern
Montana with light winds. Expect this mild and quiet weather to
largely continue through the remainder of the day, with just a few
clouds passing overhead across the Southwest and along the Hi-
Line. Biggest weather feature of the next 24 hours will be the
passage of a weak surface cold front across the Plains late this
evening and overnight, which will bring a return to seasonable
temperatures across the plains for Friday and Saturday even as
highs across the Southwestern Valleys remain 5-15 degrees above
average. Overall this front should pass through the area with
little fanfare, though there may be an isolated shower north of US
2 overnight tonight. Friday and Saturday will bring the
development of a few showers and possibly thunderstorms across the
higher terrain south of I-90, with the main concern from these
showers being isolated lightning strikes.

Sunday through next Thursday As we head into next week,
uncertainty grows rapidly as a few weak weather systems try to
ride over the ridge. Overall, this will lead to a few
opportunities for showers and thunderstorms, especially across
Southwestern Montana. Highs will generally be in the upper 70s and
low 80s across North Central and Southwestern Montana, though
there is quite a bit of room between the 10th and 90th percentile
temperatures each day next week (10-15 degrees for some
locations). This indicates that temperatures each day will be
highly dependent on how these individual waves track, and with as
much uncertainty as there is right now I have elected to go with
a middle ground solution with respect to temperatures, while
having a mention of showers across Southwestern Montana. Ludwig

&&

.AVIATION...

07/00Z TAF Period

VFR conditions will generally continue through 08/00Z across North
Central (KCTB, KHVR), Central (KLWT, KGTF, KHLN), and Southwest
(KBZN, KEKS, KWYS).

A disturbance flattening the high pressure ridge over the area will
keep a threat for periods of mountain wave turbulence in the
moderate westerly flow aloft. Some mid-level moisture passing over
Southwest Montana will mainly bring scattered to broken clouds there
through around 18Z, with the slight chance of a light rain shower. A
weak frontal boundary will also move south of the Canadian border
after 06Z, which will shift winds more northerly and gusty at times
over the plains. This upslope pattern should help spread lower VFR
ceilings over the plains through 12Z as well, with the chance for
mountain top obscuring low VFR/high MVFR ceilings mainly being along
the east- and north-facing mountain slopes (including KCTB, KGTF,
KLWT). After 18Z, winds will start to decrease and ceilings should
start to lift. -Coulston

Refer to weather.gov/zlc for more detailed regional aviation
weather and hazard information.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GTF  50  69  45  73 /   0   0   0   0
CTB  46  66  42  67 /   0  10   0   0
HLN  55  81  51  81 /   0   0   0   0
BZN  50  81  47  80 /  10   0   0   0
WYS  46  76  42  77 /  10  10  10  10
DLN  51  82  48  83 /   0   0   0   0
HVR  48  70  46  72 /  10   0   0   0
LWT  47  68  45  71 /   0  10   0   0

&&

.TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

http://www.weather.gov/greatfalls