157
FXUS65 KTFX 051732
AFDTFX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Great Falls MT
1130 AM MDT Wed Jun 5 2024

Aviation Section Updated.

.UPDATE...

Surface analysis reveals pressure rises continuing across
N-central and Southwest Montana. Isolated locations along the
Rocky Mountain Front, and downwind of the central Montana island
ranges have seen wind gusts up to around 50 mph this morning.
Overall observed and forecast trends favor decreasing support for
high winds. Some of the high wind warning zones were cancelled
earlier this morning, and the rest will be allowed to expire at
18Z (noon).

&&

.SYNOPSIS...

Winds will gradually decrease today with warmer and drier
conditions following through the rest of the week with just a few
showers and thunderstorms across Southwestern Montana during the
afternoon.

&&

.AVIATION...

05/18Z TAF Period

VFR conditions will prevail through the period with a few mid to
high level clouds passing through during the day. Periodic gusts of
25-35kts are occurring at some north-central MT terminals through
mid afternoon. Winds aloft and at the surface gradually continue to
decrease this afternoon/evening.

Refer to weather.gov/zlc for more detailed regional aviation weather
and hazard information.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 543 AM MDT Wed Jun 5 2024/

Today... Based on recent observations, the surface winds have de-
coupled from the stronger flow aloft which has led to much lower
surface wind speeds than what was originally forecasted. When
looking at the latest model guidance there is about a 50/50 split
as to whether the stronger winds aloft will be able to mix back
down to the surface again. Should models like the HRRR pan out,
portions of central Montana may still catch a gust up to 60 mph
this morning. But should things lean more towards the RAP, then we
might be well past the peak wind for this event. Given that enough
of the models are still pointing towards a high wind threat this
morning, I elected to let the high wind warning run its course
through noon today.

Otherwise, light showers will be possible this morning along the
Rocky Mountain Front and the hi-line. These showers will taper off
by the early afternoon leaving warm and dry conditions for the
rest of the day.

Thursday thru Saturday... An upper level ridge will build over
the western CONUS leading to much warmer temperatures with lower
elevations seeing highs in the mid 70s to low 80s and higher
elevations ranging from the low 60s to the low 70s. Dry conditions
will persist across north-central and central Montana with a
chance for scattered afternoon thunderstorms in southwestern
Montana through the weekend.

Sunday thru Monday... A weak disturbance will move across the
state bringing a more widespread chance for showers and afternoon
thunderstorms. Showers are generally expected to be light,
however, some ensemble members are starting to point towards a
chance for heavier precipitation in southwestern Montana. That
being said, specific details are far from resolved at this point
in time.

Early Next Week... Long-range model guidance shows the ridge axis
moving further east around Monday and remaining more aligned over
Montana through early next week. As such, temperatures in the
extended forecast are showing the potential to be even warmer with
more widespread temperatures above 80 degrees possible. Specifics
are still to be determined as some disagreement in the exact
placement of the ridge axis remains. But it might finally be safe
to say that summer is here... and here to stay.

-thor

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GTF  71  42  81  48 /   0   0   0   0
CTB  67  39  76  44 /   0   0   0   0
HLN  76  47  86  54 /   0   0   0   0
BZN  76  44  84  51 /   0   0   0   0
WYS  72  40  77  45 /   0   0   0  10
DLN  76  45  84  51 /   0   0   0   0
HVR  71  44  77  48 /  10   0   0   0
LWT  66  42  75  46 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
High Wind Warning until noon MDT today for Bears Paw Mountains
and Southern Blaine-East Glacier Park Region-Fergus County below
4500ft-Judith Basin County and Judith Gap-Northern Blaine County-
Northern High Plains-Snowy and Judith Mountains-Southern High
Plains.

&&

$$

http://www.weather.gov/greatfalls