


Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Great Falls, MT
Issued by NWS Great Falls, MT
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805 FXUS65 KTFX 110827 AFDTFX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Great Falls MT 227 AM MDT Fri Jul 11 2025 .KEY MESSAGES... - Cool and dry today, trending warmer this weekend. - Transitioning cooler and wetter Monday into Tuesday, lingering into Wednesday in some areas. - High uncertainty with respect to timing and location of any heavier precipitation for early next week. && .DISCUSSION... - Meteorological Overview: Broad upper level ridging centered off the Pacific coast is slowly beginning to build across the Northern Rockies in wake of troughing exiting toward the Great Plains this morning. Although the ridging is building in, the post-frontal airmass in place at the surface will keep temperatures near or a touch below average today. A few instances of patchy fog cannot be ruled out this morning, especially in areas which saw precipitation yesterday evening. As the ridge continues building, temperatures trend back above average for the weekend. Ridging looks to hold on long enough to keep the region dry through Sunday afternoon. Heading into Monday, the broad ridging is easily broken down by troughing moving southeastward from BC and vicinity. A cold front is expected to move from north to south across the region Monday, though the timing of this front has been far from consistent at this time. Nonetheless, the main takeaway for Monday into Tuesday will be for a transition back to cooler than average temperatures, with opportunities for a more widespread (Stratiform) type of precipitation. Additional uncertainty associated with this system will be discussed further in the confidence and scenarios section. The area attempts to trend drier and warmer Wednesday and Thursday, though there remains considerable uncertainty as to how quickly that will occur. -AM - Forecast Confidence & Scenarios: There are several variables early next week that are yet to be resolved that will have a significant role in how the Monday- Wednesday timeframe evolve. The first is the timing of the cold front on Monday. A slower to arrive front would result in at least a low-end chance for stronger showers and thunderstorms across Central and Southwest Montana. A faster to arrive front would keep these opportunities just across Southwest Montana. Additionally, guidance is struggling with how the troughing evolves across the region. A solution with briefly lower snow levels features a sharper, more potent trough that moves across the region Tuesday morning. This sharper trough solution would result in an opportunity for snow in the high elevations of the Northern Rocky Mountain Front (Including the east side of Glacier NP). Guidance that is more broad keeps snow levels higher, but keeps the cooler temperatures around for longer. Just how quickly the region warms up and dries out will depend on whether the troughing is sharper, and thus quicker to exit, or if it is more broad and lingers. Overall there are many details that need to be worked out before confidence in either solution grows. -AM && .AVIATION... 11/06Z TAF Period VFR conditions will prevail at all terminals through the TAF period. Scattered showers behind the cold front will continue to make their way to the south bringing some low-VFR ceilings and periods of mountain obscuration through the first 6 hours of the period. Winds will diminish heading into the overnight hours and remain light through the remainder of the period. Low to mid-level clouds will give way to mostly clear skies across all terminals by 11/16Z. -thor Refer to weather.gov/zlc for more detailed regional aviation weather and hazard information. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... GTF 80 54 91 59 / 0 0 0 0 CTB 79 52 85 57 / 0 0 0 0 HLN 83 55 91 59 / 10 0 0 0 BZN 82 49 91 54 / 20 0 0 0 WYS 74 37 82 41 / 10 0 0 0 DLN 77 47 88 51 / 10 0 0 0 HVR 81 53 91 57 / 10 0 0 0 LWT 73 50 85 55 / 0 0 0 0 && .TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ http://www.weather.gov/greatfalls