799
FXUS65 KTFX 020210
AFDTFX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Great Falls MT
810 PM MDT Sat Jun 1 2024

.SYNOPSIS...

A few light rain showers and general thunderstorms late this
afternoon into the early evening hours across Southwest and Central
Montana. Near normal temperatures continue through this weekend into
early next week with our next weather system moving into the region
Monday bringing chances of precipitation Monday and Tuesday and
strong winds through Wednesday. Above normal temperatures and drier
conditions return for later next week.

&&

.Update...

Evening update has been published, with only minor adjustments
made to overnight lows and PoPs to account for recent trends and
latest guidance. Otherwise the on-going forecast is performing
well. Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms continue to
lift northeast from Idaho/Western Montana and across Southwest
and into Central Montana this evening. Main impact this evening
from these showers and thunderstorms has and will continue to be
gusty and erratic winds of between 30 to 50 mph. - Moldan

&&

.AVIATION...

02/00Z TAF Period

Scattered showers with a few isolated thunderstorms are possible
this evening in Southwest MT and KLWT this evening. Best chances for
precipitation will be between 02/01z through 02/08z. Lower VFR and
brief gusty winds will accompany precipitation. Mid to high level
clouds persist for the TAF period. -Wilson

Refer to weather.gov/zlc for more detailed regional aviation
weather and hazard information.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 550 PM MDT Sat Jun 1 2024/

Rest of today through tomorrow night...Near normal afternoon
temperatures, with the exception of mountainous terrain as
temperatures continue to be below normal with highs in the 50s,
through the weekend with rain shower and a few non-severe
thunderstorms this evening from Southwest Montana into Central
Montana from a Bozeman to Lewistown line. Primary concerns today
with any developed thunderstorms are lightning, gusty winds up to 40
mph, and a heavy downpour. A drier day is in store for tomorrow
morning before our next impactful weather system arrives for
tomorrow night into Monday.

Monday through Wednesday...Upper level troughing is favored to move
into the state from the Pacific Northwest and dig southward across
Southwest and Central Montana bringing unsettled weather conditions.
Strong winds and scattered rain showers and thunderstorms are in
store for Monday afternoon and evening for along the Rocky
Mountain Front, Central, and Southwest Montana.

Probabilities of Wind Gusts greater than 55 mph from latest
data from National Blend of Models 4.2 (NBM):

Browning - 98%
Cut Bank - 96%
Great Falls - 60%
Havre - 40%

Upper level troughing is forecasted to move out of our region
Tuesday night with upper level ridging building in for Wednesday
with dry and windy conditions, especially along the Rocky Mountain
Front Wednesday morning into the afternoon. We decided to extend the
High Wind Watch to include portions of Cascade, Judith Basin, Fergus
counties and along the Hi-Line through Wednesday afternoon. We also
extended the timing for along the Rocky Mountain Front as mountain
wave activity could occur. Winding down of strong winds reaching
high wind criteria along the Rocky Mountain Front and the adjacent
Hi-Plains region down into Central Montana, is likely (greater than
75 percent) Wednesday afternoon and evening as probabilities are
still between 25 and 50 percent in a few higher terrain locations
while elsewhere is below 25 percent.

Thursday into next weekend...The Climate Prediction Center updated 6
to 10 day outlook for our region is favoring above normal
temperatures (80%) and leaning below normal precipitation (45%) for
this timeframe. Ensemble member guidance is currently in favor of
upper level ridging to begin Thursday and continue through Saturday
where uncertainty grows on whether upper level ridging continues
or upper level troughing begins to move in for beyond Sunday.
While upper level ridging is favored, a quick upper level
shortwave can`t be ruled out to bring some afternoon shower
activity into Friday and Saturday. Webb

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GTF  48  72  55  71 /  20  10  20  50
CTB  43  68  50  65 /  10  10  20  30
HLN  51  75  55  69 /  30  20  10  80
BZN  46  73  51  68 /  40  30  10  90
WYS  41  64  45  56 /  30  30  10  90
DLN  46  72  53  66 /  30  20  10  80
HVR  51  75  55  74 /  10  10  10  40
LWT  44  69  50  69 /  50  20  10  70

&&

.TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

High Wind Watch from Monday evening through Wednesday morning
for East Glacier Park Region-Eastern Glacier, Western Toole, and
Central Pondera-Northern High Plains-Southern High Plains-
Southern Rocky Mountain Front.

High Wind Watch from Tuesday morning through Wednesday morning
for Bears Paw Mountains and Southern Blaine-Cascade County below
5000ft-Eastern Toole and Liberty-Fergus County below 4500ft-Hill
County-Judith Basin County and Judith Gap-Northern Blaine County.

&&

$$

http://www.weather.gov/greatfalls