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Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Topeka, KS
Issued by NWS Topeka, KS
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252 FXUS63 KTOP 081722 AFDTOP Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Topeka KS 1222 PM CDT Sat Jun 8 2024 .KEY MESSAGES... - Storm chances continue later this afternoon and tonight with locally heavy rainfall possible. - Small precipitation chances next week. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 324 AM CDT Sat Jun 8 2024 Early this morning water vapor satellite imagery was showing a shortwave trough moving into western Missouri with a upstream perturbation moving into western Kansas. Another short wave trough was moving across Utah and Western Wyoming at 07Z. A complex of storms continues to move off to the east and southeast of the area with precipitation ending as of 0715Z. For today, a frontal boundary will gradually sag southward across the area and into southern Kansas by late afternoon. Depending upon where the front is later this afternoon, there remains a small probability (20-30%) for some storms to develop along the front in east central Kansas with surface heating and convergence. Temperatures today will be cooler than yesterday, especially across far northern Kansas where highs will be in the lower 80s, while areas south of I-70 warm into the mid to upper 80s. This evening storms are forecast to develop across eastern Colorado then move eastward into western Kansas where they will then track into central and south central Kansas along a moisture and instability gradient. Areas south of I-70 look to have the best chance (70-80%) of storms producing locally heavy rainfall. A few of the storms could also pose a wind and hail threat. Precipitation moves out of the far southeast Sunday morning with decreasing clouds as high pressure builds in from the north. Highs will generally be in the upper 70s to lower 80s. Lows drop into the 50s Sunday night across the area, with highs in the upper 70s to lower 80s again on Monday. Warm advection Wednesday on the back side of the surface high will see a thermal axis develop across western into north central Kansas where highs will warm back into the lower 90s. Temps warm into the mid 90s on Thursday as the thermal axis builds eastward into central and northeast Kansas. Precipitation chances for much of next week remain low (20% or less), however Tuesday may be the best chance, (30%), of the week as a mid level trough moves across the Plains. Another system approaches for the end of next week with the potential for showers developing. && .AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY/... Issued at 1222 PM CDT Sat Jun 8 2024 A frontal boundary has finally made its way over and past the terminals, shifting winds towards the northeast where they will stay over the course of the TAF at all sites. Later this evening and overnight, storms moving in from western Kansas will provide chances for thunder at or near the terminals, mainly between midnight through sunrise. Kept mention of VCTS due to lack of confidence in how far north showers and storms will make it. Majority of convection (especially the strongest storms) should stay south of the terminals. After sunrise Sunday, cloud cover should slowly begin to scatter out by the afternoon hours as high pressure builds in. && .TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ DISCUSSION...53 AVIATION...Griesemer