820
FXUS63 KTOP 251936
AFDTOP

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Topeka KS
236 PM CDT Sat May 25 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- The potential for a higher-end severe weather event remains this
  evening into early Sunday. Damaging wind gusts, large hail,
  and a few tornadoes are all possible.

- Thunderstorms chances continue through Sunday before drier and
  quieter conditions are expected Memorial Day through
  Tuesday.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 236 PM CDT Sat May 25 2024

A mid level trough was located over the Rockies this afternoon with
profilers from VWP showing a perturbation ejecting out of northeast
Colorado. A more defined PV anomaly was located over Colorado into
New Mexico at 19Z, which will be the main driver for convection
later today and tonight. Starting to see come cumulus building in
parts of western Kansas at 19Z. Mass response in relation to the
approaching shortwave trough continues to bring dew points
northward, but as of 19Z 60+F dewpoints remained confined to far
southern Kansas into Oklahoma. Expect the moisture to continue to
increase across northeast Kansas this evening and tonight.

CAMS continue to show development across parts of western and
central Kansas late this afternoon into the early evening hours.
Expect scattered supercells moving into north central Kansas after 7
PM to 8 PM. These storms will move northeast and be capable of all
hazards, but primarily large hail and damaging winds. Storms that
develop in southwest and south central Kansas look to take on an
more easterly movement where again very large hail, damaging winds
and a few tornadoes will be possible. This places the southern
portions of the cwa, mainly across east central Kansas where these
storms will track across. Storms will also have the potential to
produce locally heavy rainfall, especially later this evening into
the overnight hours. Moisture transport vectors will be southerly
this evening before veering to the southwest after midnight. There
is the potential for some training of storms which may lead to
locally heavy rainfall and rainfall rates approaching two inches per
hour. Dry antecedent conditions will preclude a flood watch at this
time, but the potential for flash flooding will exist(30%) tonight
in localized areas.

On the heels of the first wave which moves out into Missouri Sunday
morning a trailing wave may generate showers and thunderstorms during
the afternoon hours across the area. Steepening lapse rates with
cooling aloft in the afternoon and remnant moisture may be enough
for some large hail and isolated strong winds with the stronger
storms.

Dry weather is expected for Memorial Day and Tuesday before
precipitation chances return to the region from Wednesday into next
weekend as a series f mid level troughs move through the Plains.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY/...
Issued at 1223 PM CDT Sat May 25 2024

VFR conditions are expected outside of any convection through
the period. Main concern will be timing of tsra at the
terminals. Trend has been a little faster and have adjusted the
period of VCTS. Winds east southeast to south through the period
with a shift to the west and northwest in the 14Z-17Z time
period on Sunday.

&&

.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...53
AVIATION...53