586
FXUS63 KTOP 311751
AFDTOP

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Topeka KS
1251 PM CDT Fri May 31 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Scattered rain and isolated storms continue into this evening
  before tapering off overnight into Saturday AM.

- Off and on rain/storm chances remain in the forecast through
  Wednesday mostly with nocturnal convection working east into
  the area.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 441 AM CDT Fri May 31 2024

Low and mid-level water vapor this morning shows a large MCS
sprawled out over TX, and a very slow moving MCV parked over central
Kansas that has been the main lifting mechanism for ongoing moderate
to heavy rainfall across eastern Kansas. VWPs show the LLJ helping
to pump additional low-level moisture into eastern Kansas that has
led to very efficient rainfall rates within showers and storms. Over
the next several hours, guidance does not show much movement of the
MCV. With the associated theta-e ridge, PWs around 1-1.5 inches and
continued synoptic and mesoscale lift in the eastern periphery of
the MCV, expect scattered to widespread showers and some
thunderstorms to continue into this afternoon and evening, mainly
across eastern KS. CAMs do depict scattered single-cell convection
this afternoon across the central and western portion of the CWA as
instability increases a bit, but the best area for widespread
rainfall should be confined to areas east of MHK. Given all the
aforementioned parameters, a large swath of 1-3 inches of
precipitation can be expected across eastern Kansas with localized
areas of 4-5 inches possible. Short range ensemble guidance tends to
agree with this solution with PMMs from the SREF painting areas of 3-
6 inches across east-central KS. With ongoing rain and storms today,
temperatures will not fluctuate much, mainly staying in the upper
60s and low 70s.

By this evening and into Saturday morning, the mid-level vorticity
max/MCV pushes east into Missouri shifting precipitation east with
it. This will usher in a brief dry period for much of the day
Saturday. In response, skies should clear a bit Saturday afternoon
and help temperatures to bump back into the 80s. The dry weather
will likely end as the next vorticity max advects into the central
Plains Saturday night into Sunday morning. Convection initiation
should begin in the high Plains where better lift and instability
reside and then push rain and storms towards eastern KS by early
Sunday AM. As the line of convection approaches central and eastern
Kansas, a less favorable environment for strong to severe storms
will be in place, so a weakening trend in storms seems likely. That
said, cannot rule out a few strong storms within the line to be
present across central and north-central KS Saturday night and
Sunday morning.

A similar pattern will continue across the forecast area into mid
next week as weak perturbations within the zonal flow pass over the
central Plains Sunday PM, Monday PM, and possibly again Tuesday.
With the synoptic set up, minimal confidence exists in how far east
severe convection will be possible each evening. Most long-range
guidance keeps higher confidence in severe weather off to the west
of the forecast area, so this will need to be monitored over the
coming days for any impactful changes. Over this time period,
temperatures will remain in the 80s, some seeing temperatures
approaching 90 degrees, over the course of the week as a summer-like
weather pattern sets up.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY/...
Issued at 1250 PM CDT Fri May 31 2024

MVFR conditions remain from MHK westward while eastern sites
have been steady at low-end VFR. Scattered rain will continue
this afternoon before tapering off this evening. There may be
additional showers/storms approaching from central KS toward the
evening hours, though these look to weaken before reaching TAF
sites so have left out this mention. There is a good signal for
MVFR to IFR stratus to develop overnight into Saturday morning.
Some guidance suggests potential for vis reductions with fog as
well, but think soundings look more like stratus. Still
something to consider for future issuances with subsidence and
light winds behind the exiting system.

&&

.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Griesemer
AVIATION...Picha