Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Topeka, KS
Issued by NWS Topeka, KS
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245 FXUS63 KTOP 050818 AFDTOP Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Topeka KS 318 AM CDT Wed Jun 5 2024 .KEY MESSAGES... - Dry and hot conditions today, followed by a cooler airmass arriving on Thursday. - Additional storm chances Friday and Saturday - locally heavy rainfall possible. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 314 AM CDT Wed Jun 5 2024 The cold front and associated MCS continues to trek southeast from central MO to southeast OK this morning. Initial gusty northerly winds over northeast Kansas have weakened around 5 mph and should remain generally light today as sfc ridge axis slides southward during the afternoon. Scattered mid clouds behind the boundary should clear to the southeast by mid-morning, paving the way to a very warm and humid afternoon. Despite the drier air moving in with dewpoints falling into the low 50s by late afternoon, NBM spread along with bias corrected guidance have been trending warmer towards highs close to 90 degrees, likely low 90s over north central areas. A secondary boundary accompanied by a much cooler airmass arrives this evening. CAMs depict isolated storms forming over eastern NE, quickly weakening before entering far northeast Kansas. Added 10 percent pops in this area for now given the high cloud bases and lack of convergence along the boundary. North winds pickup Thursday afternoon from 10 to 20 mph as cold air advection spreads south, dropping highs about 10 degrees in the lower 80s. Upper air pattern changes Friday as an embedded shortwave trough rounds the edge of the ridge before reaching the central plains Friday evening. Latest guidance remains generous with widespread QPF as an MCS develops and tracks southeast through Saturday morning, followed by an additional cold front. Forecast soundings show abundant moisture throughout the column as PWAT values peak above 2 inches. While MUCAPE values are not particularly high (1000 J/KG or less), strong bulk shear would be enough for possible damaging wind gusts in addition to locally heavy rainfall. Another complex may develop once again late Saturday evening, but currently focus along the h85 front in southern KS. Highs in the lower 80s follow from Sunday into early next week. && .AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY/... Issued at 1222 AM CDT Wed Jun 5 2024 VFR as occasionally gusty northwest winds weaken as they back towards the west southwest aft 16Z. && .TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ DISCUSSION...Prieto AVIATION...Prieto