889
FXUS64 KTSA 260742
AFDTSA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
242 AM CDT Sun May 26 2024

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM...

.SHORT TERM...
(Today)
Issued at 242 AM CDT Sun May 26 2024

A couple strong supercells continue across far northeast Oklahoma
and northwest Arkansas with the continues threat of all severe
hazards through the early morning hours before shifting off to the
east by sunrise. Following the exit of these storms, a rather hot
and humid day is in store across the region as highs reach into
the 90s. A cold front will drop southeastward through eastern
Oklahoma and western Arkansas during the afternoon. A few
scattered thunderstorms will be possible along the front,
primarily across northwest Arkansas from mid to late afternoon.
Severe weather will be possible, with large hail the primary
threat.

Bowlan

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Tonight through Saturday)
Issued at 242 AM CDT Sun May 26 2024

Cooler and drier weather will filter in behind the front tonight
with lows dropping into the low 60s and upper 50s. A quiet day
looks to be in store for Memorial Day on Monday as subtle mid
level and surface ridging builds into the region. The mid level
ridge then begins to build more into the western CONUS over the
coming week, with a shift in the pattern to northwest flow aloft
over much of the Southern Plains. Daily thunderstorm complexes are
likely to develop across the High Plains and track across the
forecast area nightly Tuesday night through Thursday night.
Locally heavy rainfall will be the primary concern, with some
limited severe potential also likely to accompany any MCS that
moves through the region.

THe unsettles pattern continues into next weekend as we remain on
the periphery of the ridge and increased westerly flow aloft
continues over the area. Daily thunderstorm chances will continue
during this time as well with the warm and moist airmass remaining
in place through the period.

Bowlan

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1238 AM CDT Sun May 26 2024
Supercell continues to track east early this morning across far
northeast Oklahoma and will likely impact KXNA/KROG in the 06-07Z
time range. LIFR conditions will be likely with the potential for
severe gusts/large hail. Supercell located along the OK/KS state
line should remain north of KBVO. Additional storms are developing
across portions of eastern Oklahoma in strong low level jet and a
few of these storms could also briefly impact NW AR TAF sites
overnight. Otherwise, strong and gusty southwest winds will develop
during the day Sunday. VFR conditions will prevail through the
remainder of the TAF period.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   90  62  87  62 /  10   0   0   0
FSM   93  67  90  63 /  20  20   0   0
MLC   93  64  89  63 /   0   0   0  10
BVO   88  58  86  58 /  10   0   0   0
FYV   90  60  85  59 /  20  20   0   0
BYV   89  62  84  59 /  20  20   0   0
MKO   91  62  85  62 /   0   0   0   0
MIO   87  59  83  59 /  20  10   0   0
F10   92  61  86  62 /   0   0   0  10
HHW   91  65  90  64 /   0   0   0  10

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...None.
AR...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...04
LONG TERM....04
AVIATION...12