Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Tulsa, OK
Issued by NWS Tulsa, OK
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910 FXUS64 KTSA 311645 AFDTSA Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Tulsa OK 1145 AM CDT Fri May 31 2024 ...New AVIATION... .SHORT TERM... (The rest of today ) Issued at 1030 AM CDT Fri May 31 2024 A few areas of showers and storms continue this morning in association with a mid level wave moving across E OK. Overall coverage through 18z should remain low, but some increase in coverage across far E OK and NW is likely after 18z with any afternoon heating that the mid level wave interacts with as it slowly moves east. That said, have adjusted PoPs some, mostly lowering them across much of the area through 00z as most hi res guidance suggests an overall lower coverage of showers/storms. Ample cloud cover will keep temps down this afternoon, so the the smaller diurnal rises reflected in max temps today look good. Other than adjustments to PoPs, remaining first period elements are in line and will be left as they are. && .LONG TERM... (Saturday through Thursday) Issued at 1030 AM CDT Fri May 31 2024 After a relative lull on Saturday, PoPs/thunder chances increase some on Sunday as a weak wave slides across. Higher rain/storm chances are then expected Sunday night into Monday as a front approaches from the north. Another relative lull in the action is expected Tuesday before another potentially stronger shortwave trough and associated cold front affect the Plains. The 12Z EC was very amplified with this system and had a stronger cold front, whereas the other global models were not near as aggressive. Ensemble cluster analysis suggests that the 12Z EC solution had a lower prob chance of verifying, and climatology would also argue against it as well. Nevertheless, a front will push into the region Tuesday night into Wednesday with higher rain/storm chances, and there`s definitely potential for an MCS to sweep across the region during this time. If the stronger flow aloft from the EC verifies, this MCS would have higher chances of being severe. Mainly quiet weather is expected to close out the work week. Lacy && .AVIATION... (18Z TAFS) Issued at 1145 AM CDT Fri May 31 2024 Mid level trough moving across the area will likely result in an increase in SHRA/TSRA activity, mainly across far NE OK and NW AR later this afternoon and evening. Coverage likely to remain low enough to only include a VCTS at the AR sites from 21z-01z with this issuance. MVFR cigs likely to prevail through at least the first 6-9 hours of the valid period, with a period of VFR conditions thereafter. Fog potential will increase late tonight, especially across the E OK sites where higher rainfall as occurred most recently. Will include tempo groups from 09z-13z with MVFR cigs, IFR vsbys at KRVS and KBVO, and MVFR vsbys elsewhere. MVFR cigs are expected to lift by late morning with VFR elements prevailing for the remainder of the period at all sites. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... TUL 63 85 66 85 / 30 10 10 20 FSM 66 86 66 86 / 60 20 10 30 MLC 63 85 66 86 / 30 20 10 20 BVO 60 84 62 85 / 30 10 10 20 FYV 62 81 62 85 / 60 20 10 30 BYV 62 80 61 85 / 70 20 0 30 MKO 63 83 65 83 / 50 10 10 20 MIO 62 82 62 83 / 40 10 10 30 F10 62 84 65 84 / 30 10 10 20 HHW 65 84 67 82 / 40 30 10 30 && .TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OK...None. AR...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...23 LONG TERM....30 AVIATION...23