377
FXUS64 KTSA 031124
AFDTSA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
624 AM CDT Mon Jun 3 2024

...New AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...
(Today)
Issued at 346 AM CDT Mon Jun 3 2024

The main focus for today will be an organizing MCS that is
currently across southwest Kansas. CAM`s are in reasonably good
agreement that this storm complex will track southeast into
northeast Oklahoma later this morning, and will maintain or even
increase in intensity through the day as it advances southeast
through much of our forecast area. Damaging winds will be the main
severe weather threat with this complex. Scattered showers and
storms may also develop ahead of the complex this morning, and
some hail potential will exist with this activity. Locally heavy
rainfall amounts will also be possible today. Temperatures today
are problematic, but think most places should top out in the 80-85
degree range, with southern areas seeing their highs prior to the
arrival of the storm complex.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Tonight through Sunday)
Issued at 346 AM CDT Mon Jun 3 2024

Convective chances tonight behind today`s complex are highly
uncertain, so have stuck with the NBM pops for now. Much of
Tuesday will likely be dry, but storm chances will ramp up Tuesday
evening and overnight as a weak frontal boundary approaches from
the north. Severe storms and locally heavy rainfall appear likely
again at this time.

A relatively dry period will exist behind this frontal boundary
Wednesday through Friday before mainly overnight and morning storm
chances increase again by the weekend as high plains convection
tracks southeast each night in the northwest flow pattern aloft.

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 623 AM CDT Mon Jun 3 2024

The main change to the forecast was to adjust TAFs for the
anticipated arrival of an MCS which is expected to sweep across
the region later today per more recent model data. TEMPOs were
used to time the arrival, with gusty winds and lower vsbys. Also
used VCTS mention to cover the spotty warm advection showers and
storms early this morning. Storms should be done by 00Z this
evening, though some data has storms redeveloping late tonight
across the region. Given the uncertainty near the tail end of the
forecast, used PROB30 groups to cover that potential.

Lacy

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   82  69  86  68 /  90  40  20  60
FSM   84  71  87  70 /  80  50  20  70
MLC   83  70  86  69 /  80  50  10  60
BVO   81  66  85  66 /  90  50  20  60
FYV   81  67  84  66 /  70  40  30  70
BYV   80  66  84  66 /  70  40  30  70
MKO   80  69  86  69 /  80  40  10  70
MIO   80  67  84  66 /  80  50  30  70
F10   82  69  86  68 /  70  50  10  70
HHW   84  69  86  70 /  60  50  10  40

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...None.
AR...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...05
LONG TERM....05
AVIATION...30