430
FXUS65 KTWC 202030
AFDTWC

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tucson AZ
130 PM MST Mon May 20 2024

.SYNOPSIS...A weak trough continues to bring several degrees of
cooling along with gusty afternoon winds this week. A slight
chance of dry thunderstorms today but otherwise, dry conditions
prevail through the end of the week and into early next week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...High level cloud cover today may develop into
isolated dry thunderstorms along the White Mountains and north of
our area this afternoon. The presence of a tight pressure
gradient as the low pressure passes to our north will bring
strong gusty winds this afternoon, resulting in the Red Flag
Warning that is currently in effect until 8pm MST.

As the week progresses, an upper-level trough will prevail,
helping to keep our temperatures near our climatological normal.
This will result in dry conditions and most locations being in
the low-to-mid 90s. As we move into next week, a ridge moves into
place, with early next week (Tuesday) having a 50% chance of
hitting the triple digits in Tucson for the first time this year.

&&

.AVIATION...Valid through 22/0Z
SCT-BKN clouds AOA 10k ft AGL. SFC winds predominantly WLY-NWLY
with afternoon speeds up to 25 mph and gusts up to 35 mph. Aft
21/04Z, diurnal trends continue with light and variable winds
overnight and winds up to 20 mph aft 21/19Z. Aviation discussion
not updated for TAF amendments.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...A Red Flag Warning is in effect until 8pm today
for Fire Weather Zone 152 due to dry conditions with min RH`s in
the single digits for much of the lower valleys. In addition,
surface winds range up to 25 mph with gusts up to 35 mph. There is
a slight chance of isolated convection up in the White Mountains
this afternoon, bringing the occasional lightning strike. For the
rest of the week, calmer winds return (less than 20 mph) and we
continue to stay dry with temperatures in the low-to-mid 90s for
majority of the area.

&&

.TWC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Red Flag Warning until 8 PM MST this evening for AZZ152.

&&

$$

Giralte

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