929
FXUS65 KTWC 190847
AFDTWC

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tucson AZ
147 AM MST Sun May 19 2024

.SYNOPSIS...A weak trough will bring several degrees of cooling
along with gusty afternoon winds this week. Expect typical late
May temperatures in the 90s for most locations.

&&

.DISCUSSION...A broad trough is developing through the Great
Basin and much of the intermountain west over the next 24 hours.
As this happens, a weak low off the southern CA / northern Baja
coast is expected to shear into the base of the trough from the
eastern Pacific. This should bring breezy winds to the area Monday
afternoon, with a few buildups possible near the mountains late
Monday into Monday evening. PoPs are low to nonexistent with
limited available moisture currently in the forecast. However,
NAEFS mean integrated water vapor transport trends continue to
increase into our corner of the state for Monday and Monday
evening to go along with the breezy to locally windy gradient
winds. Combined with modest dynamics and shear from the low,
isolated high based dry thunderstorms will be possible.

We should maintain some flavor of unseasonably deep regional
trough as several impulses keep the storm track a little further
south than we typically see for late May. This will keep a breezy
gradient for most afternoons through the week. It should also keep
heights and thicknesses in check with temperatures around climo
most of the week.

&&

.AVIATION...Valid through 20/12Z.
SKC. SFC winds SWLY/WLY 5 to 10 kts early morning and overnight,
increasing to 10 to 18 kts with stronger gusts between 19/19Z and
20/03Z. Aviation discussion not updated for TAF amendments.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...Dry conditions continue this week with min RHs in
the single digits for the lower valleys and the teens for the
higher terrain. Generally poor overnight recoveries. Weak weather
systems passing to our north will bring gusty afternoon winds
most days, especially Monday. With the low RHs, higher winds, and
the dry fuels a Fire Weather Watch has been issued for Monday
morning through Monday evening for most lower elevations east and
south of Tucson. In addition, there is potential for isolated dry
thunderstorms late Monday.

&&

.TWC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Fire Weather Watch from Monday morning through Monday evening
for AZZ151-152.

&&

$$

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