030
FXUS65 KTWC 272110
AFDTWC

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tucson AZ
210 PM MST Mon May 27 2024

.SYNOPSIS...High temperatures will run above normal over the next
seven days as we close out May and begin June.

&&

.DISCUSSION...Clear skies across the region with temperatures
climbing up to the triple digit territory. As of 2 pm, Tucson
Airport hit 96 degrees which is 4 degrees warmer than previous 24
hours. It is shaping up that today could be the day Tucson breaks
the ice, especially with the NBM probabilities of exceeding 100
degrees is at least 25% from the 13z run. We will be keeping an
eye out on the thermometer for the next few days. Tomorrow,
Tucson and the low lying areas to the west have better chances of
hitting 100 degrees.

For the rest of the week, temperatures will generally stay
elevated around the triple digit mark for the lower elevations and
mid to upper 90s. The synoptic pattern will have a ridge over the
Great Basin through Wednesday with a trough passing to the north
that will suppress the strength of the ridge. Temperatures will
still generally be in the upper 90s for Tucson. By the weekend,
the ridge will build again along the western coast to the Great
Basin to bring better chances for 100 degrees for areas west of
Tucson. Dry and hot start to June.

&&

.AVIATION...Valid through 29/00Z.
SKC through the forecast period. SFC winds southwesterly to
northwesterly 8-12 kts with the occasional gusts up to 20 kts
this afternoon through 28/02Z and again returning after 28/18z. In
between, terrain driven winds with speeds less than 10 kts.
Aviation discussion not updated for TAF amendments.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...Afternoon temperatures will be several degrees
above normal throughout the rest of the week. Min relative
humidities will generally being the single digits for the lower
elevations and lower teens for the higher elevations. Poor overnight
recovers throughout the week with values in the 20s to lower 30s.
Expect diurnal winds trends to continue with the occasional wind
gusts, generally less than 25 mph.

&&

.TWC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

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