792
FXUS65 KTWC 032057
AFDTWC

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tucson AZ
157 PM MST Mon Jun 3 2024

.SYNOPSIS...High pressure will bring hot temperatures, especially
Thursday and Friday with an excessive heat warning in effect.
Otherwise sunny skies and afternoon breeziness can be expected
over the next few days. A weather system will bring a moisture
increase later in the week into next weekend, with a few
thunderstorms around the area. Rainfall should be limited, with
strong and erratic outflow winds the main threat.

&&

.DISCUSSION...A broad zonal flow with dry conditions and
temperatures near or a little above average early in the week.

The main story will be the heat this weak as high pressure builds
over the desert southwest the second half of the week. Temperatures
are expected to climb to 7-10 degrees above climo and may approach
record levels in a few locations. This includes the first 105+ of
the season for Tucson Metro, which may even approach 110 Thursday
or Friday. One caveat to this could be increasing cloud cover that
may mitigate this a degree or two. Temperatures should abate as a
weak low brings a modest moisture increase and drives down
heights and thicknesses over the weekend.

The afore mentioned low is expected to form with weak
cyclogenesis off the Baja coast over the next 48 hours. This will
combine with the high pressure pattern to bring a southerly flow
the second half of the week, which should guide some mid level
moisture into the area along with a shallow push possible at the
surface. The elevated heat will help to push convection with this.
It may not be enough for many valley and lower desert locations,
but it should be sufficient to support a few storms near higher
terrain and eastern mountains. Limited rainfall amounts with
narrow precip cores, but a good environment for dry microbursts
and strong outflows.

The low should shear into the base of a broad trough across the
central plains early next week, with ensemble means suggesting a
dry northwesterly flow on the front side of a new ridge position
near the west coast.

&&

.AVIATION...Valid through 05/00Z.
FEW/SCT clouds AOA 20k ft AGL. SFC winds west to southwesterly
10 to 15 knots before diminishing after 02Z, then increasing again
after 04/19Z. Aviation discussion not updated for TAF amendments.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER..Dry conditions and high temperatures a few degrees
above average the next few days, becoming 7 to 10 degrees above
average the second half of the week. Dangerous heat is
anticipated across the valleys of Southeast Arizona Thursday and
possibly again Friday. Minimum relative humidity values 5-10% in
the lower elevations 8-15 percent in the mountains through the
week, along with poor overnight recoveries between 20-30%.

Breezy afternoon winds are expected again today with west to
southwest winds of 15 to 20 mph and gusts up to 30 mph. An
approaching weather system will result in the potential for dry
thunderstorms with gusty outflow winds Friday and Saturday.

&&

.TWC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Excessive Heat Warning from 10 AM Thursday to 8 PM MST Friday
for AZZ501>509.

&&

$$


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