Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Tucson, AZ

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000
FXUS65 KTWC 242102
AFDTWC

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tucson AZ
202 PM MST Sun Mar 24 2024

.SYNOPSIS...Colder than normal temperatures will continue through
Tuesday with a few showers from time to time. After a warming trend
with dry weather late this week, another weather system may arrive
late this next weekend or early the following week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...Cold front swept through early this morning leaving
behind a cold, moist and unstable air mass. In the cyclonic flow
aloft and a bit of sunshine poking through convective showers have
popped up and every once in awhile one of them kicks out a lightning
strike. Several CAM solutions haven`t really handled the daytime
situation well and some question on how well they will handle the
next 48 hours. That said, off and on showers are a fair bet over the
next 18-24 hours or so with the flow aloft remaining cyclonic and a
few features rotating around the base of the trough. Will be tough to
time given the nature of the situation. Will likely have a little
enhancement once again Monday afternoon. Cold temperatures remain in
place Monday with a bit of an afternoon breeze although not as strong
as today.

Tuesday we are still under moist NW flow that remains weakly cyclonic
and a feature modeled to move across the area. That alone should be
good for a few showers and add in the solar component and we should
see some here and there. Remaining quite cool for the end of March
with highs remaining 11-19 degrees cooler than normal.

Wednesday, upper level ridging is quickly building over the area
which will clear out the moisture and bring an end to the
precipitation. This will also bring about the start of a quick warm
up with temperatures jumping up 8-10 degrees from Tuesday although
that still leaves us 4-9 degrees colder than normal. Another 6-10
degrees of warming will occur Thursday which will put the lower
deserts 80-83 and the eastern valleys in the mid 70s which is right
about normal. This warmth will continue through Friday and likely
Saturday.

There is a bit of a question about Saturday as another rather cool
and damp weather system looks like it is headed our way. At this
point in time and current model timing it looks like Saturday would
remain dry with breezy conditions, colder temperatures and a chance
of precipitation that night into the following week. A pretty good
bet on us being impacted in some fashion by a trough, the timing and
depth and amount of moisture are in flux at this time range. Stay
tuned for forecast refinements as next weekend draws nearer.

&&

.AVIATION...Valid through 26/00Z.
BKN-OVC clouds 6k-10k ft MSL with SCT to NMRS SHRA through tonight
then becoming SCT-BKN clouds 6k-9k ft MSL with isold SHRA. Mountains
obscd at times in clouds and SHRA/SHSN. Southwesterly surface winds
of 15-25 kts with gusts to 40 kts easing to 10-15 kts after 25/02Z.
Wind becoming W-NW 10-18 kts with gusts to 30 kts again Monday
afternoon. Aviation discussion not updated for TAF amendments.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Unsettled weather will continue through Tuesday with much colder than
normal temperatures, a few showers here and there and breezy
afternoon west to northwest winds. A strong warm up will occur
Thursday into Friday with a ridge building overhead. Another storm
system is expected to impact the region later next weekend into the
early part of the following week with windy conditions Saturday and
colder temperatures and a threat of showers Sunday into the following
week if the current timing and strength of the system is even
somewhat close.

&&

.TWC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Wind Advisory until 8 PM MST this evening for AZZ507>514.

Winter Weather Advisory until 10 PM MST this evening for
AZZ510>512-514.

&&

$$

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