283
FXUS63 KUNR 050845
AFDUNR

Area Forecast Discussion For Western SD and Northeastern WY
National Weather Service Rapid City SD
245 AM MDT Wed Jun 5 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Strong west to northwest winds today from northwest into south
  central South Dakota.

- Warm weather expected through early next week with some chances
  for showers and storms returning over the weekend.

&&

.DISCUSSION...(Today Through Tuesday)
Issued at 245 AM MDT Wed Jun 5 2024

Current surface analysis shows low pressure over southern
Manitoba, with a trough/developing cold front wrapping around the
low from western ND into eastern MT. Upper level analysis shows
low also over southern Manitoba, with strong 100 to 150 kt upper
level jet from southwest Canada into MT and ND. Skies are clear to
partly cloudy with temps in the upper 40s and 50s. A few light
showers/sprinkles could be reaching the ground over far northwest
SD. Winds are relatively light in most areas early this morning.

Main weather concern in the near term will be strong winds later
this morning and afternoon from northwest into south central SD as
the cool front crosses the area and helps to mix down strong winds
aloft. Winds will increase after daybreak across far northwest SD as
the front passes. Isolated light showers over northwest SD will also
help to produce stronger winds early this morning. Stronger winds
will spread south and east through the morning from northwest to
west central SD, but start to cut off toward southern SD, especially
south of I-90, as core of winds aloft remain to the north. Wind
advisory headlines have been extended into a good portion of south
central South Dakota. Gusts of 50 to near 60 mph can be expected
across much of northwest SD, with the strongest winds mostly over
far northwest SD. Some gusts near 60 mph could reach into portions
of Perkins and northern Ziebach counties as well by this afternoon,
but probabilities don`t like high enough (30 percent or less) to
expand the warning there, but will monitor. High temps will be in
the upper 60s and 70s, 60s over the Black Hills.

Low pressure system to the north gradually moves east-southeast into
the Great Lakes region late week, with building ridge over the west
coast moving into the Rockies. This will bring mainly dry weather
and warmer temps for Thursday and Friday, mostly mid 70s to mid 80s
on the plains and 70s over the Black Hills. Breezy northwesterly
winds will linger on Thursday from northwest to south central SD. A
disturbance moving across the central Plains Friday into Friday
night will bring slight chances for showers and thunderstorms to at
least far southern SD. The forecast for the weekend into early next
week is more uncertain. Ridge to the west will likely either flatten
out or get pushed back toward the west coast over the weekend as
shortwave energy tries to push into the northern Plains from the
north. There looks to be some chances for showers and storms over
the weekend, especially toward the latter part of the weekend and
into Monday, but timing and coverage is unclear right now. Temps
will likely slip back close to average levels by Sunday and Monday.
Looking out toward much of next week, very warm and mostly dry
weather could develop mid to late week if western US ridge is able
to build east into the Rockies and Plains as the EC, and to a lesser
extend the GFS, are currently advertising.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS Through 06Z Wednesday Night)
Issued At 1042 PM MDT Tue Jun 4 2024

Isolated rain showers are possible late tonight across northwest
South Dakota as a cold front crosses the area. Lower flight
restrictions are possible near any heavier precipitation.
Otherwise, VFR conditions are expected through the forecast
period. Strong northwest winds are also expected Wednesday across
much of the western South Dakota plains.

&&

.UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...High Wind Warning from 6 AM this morning to 6 PM MDT this
     evening for SDZ001.
     Wind Advisory from 6 AM this morning to 6 PM MDT this evening
     for SDZ002-012>014-025-031-032-043-072-073-078.
     Wind Advisory from 9 AM MDT /10 AM CDT/ this morning to 6 PM MDT
     /7 PM CDT/ this evening for SDZ046-049-077.
WY...None.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION/KEY MESSAGES...26
AVIATION...13