581
FXUS63 KUNR 101920
AFDUNR

Area Forecast Discussion For Western SD and Northeastern WY
National Weather Service Rapid City SD
120 PM MDT Mon Jun 10 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Severe weather is developing early this afternoon, with the
  primary hazards being locally heavy rainfall, large hail,
  damaging winds, and an isolated tornado threat.

- Near to above average temperatures with near daily chances for
  showers and storms through the end of the week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...(This Evening Through Monday)
Issued at 1253 PM MDT Mon Jun 10 2024

19Z upper level analysis has strong short wave entering the
Northern Plains at the moment. Severe thunderstorm watch 404 has
been issued, with strong to severe storms ongoing. At the surface,
strong southerly boundary layer winds are ongoing, with a strong
frontal boundary crossing Northeast Wyoming. Temperatures are in
the 70s.

Upper level wave will continue to cross the area today into
tonight, with strong to severe storms crossing western SD this
afternoon, and eventually exiting the forecast area early this
evening. Large hail and damaging wind gusts are likely with some
of these storms. Best chances of an isolated tornado will be
across northwestern SD through mid afternoon.

Broad upper level ridge then takes over for Tuesday into Thursday
with mostly dry conditions expected. Only isolated storms are
expected from Wednesday into Thursday. Closed upper low lifts
across the area on Friday with better chances for storms. Upper
ridge builds across the northern Plains into the weekend, with
scattered storms possible each day. Temperatures will remain at or
above average through the weekend.


&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS Through 18Z Tuesday)
Issued At 1030 AM MDT Mon Jun 10 2024

Local MVFR cigs over the Black Hills will continue to dissipate
late this morning. A few high based showers/storms will continue
into early afternoon but mainly VFR conditions will prevail. By
19Z-20Z, a cold front will move into the region, resulting in
strong to severe thunderstorms developing over northeast WY and
far western SD, then spreading eastward across western SD into
central SD later this afternoon and early evening. IFR conditions
likely in stronger storms along with large hail and damaging
winds. Storms are expected to exit the CWA by 05Z, with VFR
conditions returning, with relatively light westerly winds.

&&

.UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...None.
WY...None.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION/KEY MESSAGES...15
AVIATION...Pojorlie