Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Las Vegas, NV
Issued by NWS Las Vegas, NV
681 FXUS65 KVEF 210252 AFDVEF Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Las Vegas NV 752 PM PDT Mon May 20 2024 .SYNOPSIS...An upper level trough moving across our region will bring slightly below normal temperatures and continued gusty southwest winds today followed by moderate north winds tonight and Tuesday. A mean trough will hold over the western states this week into the holiday weekend resulting in near normal temperatures with elevated afternoon winds each day. && .UPDATE...As expected, convection across southern Nevada and northwestern Arizona has begun to diminish with the setting of the sun. Lingering showers and thunderstorms will be possible for the next hour or two across northern Mohave County and eastern Lincoln County. Precipitation totals from these showers have been lackluster with 0.02 inches of rain at Mt. Charleston and Tweeds Point being our big winners so far this evening. Once this precipitation clears out of the area later tonight we will enter a relatively dry period through at least the end of the week. This dry period will be accompanied by breezy afternoon winds and normal to slightly cooler than normal temperatures. && .SHORT TERM...through Tuesday Night. Any showers and thunderstorms that develops during the day will diminish after sunset. North to northwest winds will continue to push south across southern Nevada and Inyo County overnight behind a cold front associated with the upper level trough moving through the region. These winds are expected to remain elevated through the night, with gusts of 25 to 35 MPH expected where winds do shift north to northwest. Further southeast winds should taper off tonight as the front will not make through San Bernardino and Mohave County tonight. The main trough will exit to the east Tuesday morning with the cold front being dragged behind it. Winds will shift north to northwest across the rest of the region behind it. Breezy winds with gusts to around 25 MPH are expected through the day, so no impactful winds just general widespread afternoon breezes can be expected. No precipitation is expected on Tuesday as dry west to northwest flow aloft. Temperatures on Tuesday be a few degrees below normal as cold air continues to filter in behind the cold front. .LONG TERM...Wednesday through Sunday. A shortwave trough will drop into the Pacific Northwest and Intermountain West on Wednesday. As this shortwave clears out on Thursday we will see lingering longwave troughiness across the southwestern US through the end of the week. As a result, temperatures will remain in the normal to slightly cooler than normal range through the end of the week. 20 to 30 mph wind gusts are expected each afternoon through the end of the week with the strongest of these winds favoring the western Mojave Desert and areas of higher terrain. Despite lingering troughiness overhead, precipitation chances will be limited to none. Another system will drop into the Pacific Northwest and Intermountain West over the weekend, which will allow for the continued persistence of slightly cooler than normal temperatures and breezy afternoon winds through the weekend. && .AVIATION...For Harry Reid...Breezy southwest winds develop this afternoon with gusts generally 20-25 knots. 10% chance of gusts over 30 knots. Opted to include VCSH during the afternoon hours because of the expected shower activity just N/E of the Las Vegas Valley, including the Morman Mesa corridor, from 21z to 03z. Should any shower/virga activity make it into the valley, could briefly see some erratic winds, but the chance of this appears to be small (~10%). Scattered clouds around 10-12kft. Winds gradually weaken overnight before turning northerly early tomorrow morning. Northerly gusts tomorrow morning around 20 knots at times, weakening in the afternoon hours. For the rest of southern Nevada, northwest Arizona and southeast California...Breezy southwest winds across much of the area today, with wind gusts generally 20-25 knots but stronger (30-35 knots) at KDAG. Vicinity showers/virga possible at KVGT and KHND this afternoon, though most of the activity should stay N/E of the Las Vegas Valley. FEW-SCT clouds aoa 10kft. Winds gradually weaken overnight before turning northerly tomorrow morning. For KBIH, persistent N winds expected through the TAF period, gusting 20-30 knots at times. SCT-BKN clouds aoa 8kft. && .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...Spotters are encouraged to report any significant weather or impacts according to standard operating procedures. && $$ UPDATE...Stessman SHORT TERM...Nickerson LONG TERM...Stessman AVIATION...Woods For more forecast information...see us on our webpage: https://weather.gov/lasvegas or follow us on Facebook and Twitter