088
FXUS65 KVEF 130857
AFDVEF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Las Vegas NV
157 AM PDT Thu Jun 13 2024

.SYNOPSIS...Expect only slight relief from the heat today with
high temperatures around 2 to 3 degrees cooler. In addition,
there will be increasing clouds and shower chances over the
Sierra and across parts of Mohave County this afternoon and
evening. Hotter weather settles in over the area Friday and
especially Saturday before a broad trough brings real relief from
the heat early next week.

&&

.SHORT TERM...Thursday through Saturday.

A low pressure system off the coast of Southern California has
been cutoff from the main flow and spinning stagnant for several
days finally gets ejected northeastward today. This is due to a
combination of shortwave energy, associated with an expansive low
pressure system over the Gulf of Alaska, approaching the
Northwest Coast along with a high pressure system centered over
New Mexico and northern Mexico. The shortwave nudge combined with
the anticyclonic spin of the high pressure system helps direct the
low into the Desert Southwest and across our area today. They
system will have some weak jet energy associated with it as well
as increasing moisture over the Sierra and northern portions of
Inyo and Esmeralda counties as well as Mohave County. PWAT
anomalies in these areas are forecast to be in the range of
150-180% of normal. The moisture coupled with instability from
both the system itself and daytime heating will increase the
chances for shower and thunderstorm development this afternoon
and evening. Otherwise, we are looking for widespread breezy
winds in the 15-25 mph range this afternoon with increasing clouds
over Mohave County and parts of our northwest CWA. This batch of
clouds is forecast to pass over eastern Clark and eastern Lincoln
counties this evening. High temperatures this afternoon will
continue to be hot however, 2 or 3 degrees cooler then Wednesday.

The low pressure system moves east of the area on Friday with
shortwave ridging settling over the area behind it leading to a
slight increase in temperatures. Winds overall are expected to be
lighter on Friday with the exception of our far western areas
including the Sierra and parts of the Owens Valley and Western
Mojave Desert area where gusts of 20-30 mph are forecast. Saturday
will bring the heat once again with increasing upper level
southwest winds in response to an energetic shortwave passing
across the PacNW. High temperatures are forecast to climb near 110
degrees in Las Vegas once again with major impacts from heat risk
raising its ugly head once again in some lower elevation locations.
This increase in heat risk levels is short-lived however and
confined to this one single day so with 2 stronger events already
under our belt, this one begs for more of an increased messaging
response versus a heat product headline. This concept can be
reevaluated by the next forecast shift. Southwest winds develop
in our area on Saturday with widespread gusts of 20-25 mph
expected in the afternoon with stronger gusts of 25-35 mph across
the western parts of San Bernardino County. Winds do not appear
to be significant enough to justify any wind headlines, at this
time.

.LONG TERM...Sunday through next Wednesday.

A cooler weather patten is likely for the beginning of next week as
a trough digs into the Western US. ECMWF EFIs highlights this well
with a increasing signal for below normal max and min temperatures
Tuesday and Wednesday. There remains some uncertainty still in exact
temperatures models continue try to resolve how strong and deep the
trough will dig, but a trough of some flavor is being highlighted on
all long range model camps so cooler temperatures are expected.

Winds are the other concern with the trough. While exact wind
impacts will depend on the exact setup of the upper level trough,
increasing winds possible early next week. Fire weather will also be
a concern as it will remain dry with the increasing winds. Pinning
down exact wind strength and the time period for the strongest winds
is still uncertain, though there is a decent signal in probabilities
for win gusts over 40 MPH in  the Barstow area and western Mojave
Desert. Stay tuned!

&&

.AVIATION...For Harry Reid...Light and variable winds this morning
may briefly increase to 7-10 knots from 140-160 degrees 17Z-19Z
followed by winds from 180-200 degrees gusting 15-20 knots 19Z-03Z.
Speeds will decrease to less than 10 knots after sunset and become
light and variable early Friday morning. No significant clouds.

For the rest of southern Nevada, northwest Arizona and southeast
California...South-southwest winds will increase this afternoon
across most of the region with gusts generally 20-25 knots. Speeds
will decrease less than 10 knots around sunset and remain light
overnight. Isolated to scattered showers will develop over portions
of northwest Arizona this afternoon and also the southern Sierra
near KBIH. There is a 30-50 percent chance of gusts over 30 knots
near any precipitation. VFR conditions will prevail through the
period.

&&

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...Spotters are encouraged to report
any significant weather or impacts according to standard operating
procedures.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Salmen
LONG TERM...Nickerson
AVIATION...Adair

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