Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Las Vegas, NV
Issued by NWS Las Vegas, NV
708 FXUS65 KVEF 081649 AFDVEF Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Las Vegas NV 949 AM PDT Sat Jun 8 2024 .SYNOPSIS...High pressure will gradually break down this weekend as a trough approaches the West Coast, ending the worst of the heat wave. However, hotter temperatures are expected to return for the middle of the upcoming week before falling again late in the week. && .UPDATE...A new record warm low was set this morning in Las Vegas with the temperature bottoming out at 86 degrees. The previous record of 84 degrees was set back in 2016. For Sunday morning, the record warm low of 86 degrees looks safe with the NBM giving an 80% chance or better that the temperature will fall below 86 degrees Sunday morning at the airport. For today, we are looking for another hot one across the region with an Excessive Heat Warning continuing for parts of the area including the Las Vegas metro area. Although we are forecasting high temperatures to be a little cooler then what we have been experiencing the past few days, little relief from the heat was provided overnight with triple digit heat expected again by late this morning. Any chance of temperatures reaching 110 at the airport today are very small and there is zero chance of the high temperature challenging the record of 112 degrees. By 10-11 am this morning, the temperature at the airport should hit 100 degrees on it`s way to a high around 106 this afternoon. Although the official forecast high is 4 degrees cooler than yesterday, some locations in the valley could see temperatures as high as 109 degrees today. The following are probabilities from the latest NBM of reaching particular temperature thresholds at Harry Reid today: 80% chance of 106, 75% chance of 107, 63% chance of 108, and a 25% chance of 109. The chance of anything warmer than 109 is 10% or less. Otherwise, expect breezes to pick up later this morning and continue through sunset across much of the area. No significant winds are expected but we could see wind gusts of 20-25 mph in most areas although gusts could be a little bit stronger in the western Mojave Desert near and west of Barstow. Additionally, our far northern areas from Bishop east to Caliente will see some mid and high clouds develop this afternoon along with a the possibilityof a few isolated thunderstorms across the higher terrain. Our southern areas will be limited to seeing occasional high clouds. Overall, the forecast looks in pretty good shape so no updates to the forecast are needed at this time. && .PREV DISCUSSION...1247 AM PDT Sat Jun 8 2024... .SHORT TERM...through Sunday night. Midnight satellite loop showed mid and high clouds from north of Barstow through Death Valley and across Nye County into Lincoln County. The coldest cloud tops, remnants of thunderstorms which persisted into late evening, were over central Nye County. Surface obs showed locally gusty winds under and around the dying convection and temperatures a few degrees cooler than 24 hours ago. For this afternoon, forecast HeatRisk values continue to trend slowly downward, and the leftover clouds could influence this as well. Regardless, will keep the Excessive Heat Warning in place through this evening. The worst of this heat wave has passed, but with little or no overnight relief, heat stress could still be accumulating in vulnerable groups. High temperatures will be a few degrees lower today than yesterday and a few degrees lower Sunday than today, with highs Sunday approximately seven to 10 degrees cooler than at the peak of the heat wave on Thursday. High resolution models continue the trend of showing fewer thunderstorms today than yesterday and fewer still on Sunday, with chances both days likely confined to the Sierra crest and the northern fringes of our CWA. Breezy southerly winds each afternoon will lead to elevated fire danger, but will not be enough to cause red flag conditions. .LONG TERM...Monday through Friday. A trough of low pressure will cut off near the Baja California coast early in the week. As it drifts off the coast, high pressure will wrap around and build over the CWA for Tuesday and Wednesday, bringing hot temperatures again to the region. Temperatures may return to around 10 degrees above climatological normal by Wednesday. The cutoff low finally ejects northeastward on Thursday, dampening the ridge and bringing gusty southerly wind to the area. This will also begin a slight cooling trend and the low moves in and weakens. While this cutoff low will develop over the ocean, it doesn`t seem to have a lot of moisture associated with it, but will have considerable dynamics associated with it. Thunderstorms, perhaps dry thunderstorms can`t be ruled out, but it is early and we`ll have to see how the forecast develops over the next several days. && .AVIATION...For Harry Reid...Light and variable winds will give way to SE breezes later this morning. Chance of 10+ knot sustained winds remains below 50% until 21z. SE breezes of 8-12 knots with gusts up to 20 knots are likely (75% chance) from 21z through about 00z-01z, when winds are expected to shift to the SSW. SSW breezes persist through the night, gradually weakening with time. FEW-SCT mid-level and high clouds, with bases aoa 12 kft. For the rest of southern Nevada, northwest Arizona and southeast California...Breezy south-southeast winds at most area TAF sites late this morning and afternoon, with gusts up to 20-25 knots. The exception to this is KDAG, where the wind direction will be west or southwest through the period. At KBIH, vicinity convection may send westerly or northwesterly outflow through the airport this afternoon. Rain chances currently stand at 25%, but the chance of outflow winds reaching the airfield are closer to 50-60%. Scattered clouds around 10 kft with broken clouds above, while the rest of the sites should only see FEW-SCT clouds aoa 12 kft. && .CLIMATE...Several record high temperatures and record high minimum temperatures have been tied or broken this week. The table below shows the daily record high temperature and record high minimum temperature for today, June 8. RECORD HIGH SAT, JUNE 8 Record(Yr) Las Vegas 112(2013) Bishop 105(2016) Needles 118(1955) Barstow-Daggett 113(2013) Kingman 107(1955) Death Valley 123(2013) RECORD WARM SAT, JUNE 8 LOW Record(Yr) Las Vegas 84(2016) Bishop 64(2014) Needles 85(2013) Barstow-Daggett 77(2016) Kingman 74(1927) Death Valley 94(2022) && .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...Spotters are encouraged to report any significant weather or impacts according to standard operating procedures. && $$ UPDATE...Salmen SHORT TERM...Morgan LONG TERM...Berc AVIATION...Woods For more forecast information...see us on our webpage: https://weather.gov/lasvegas or follow us on Facebook and Twitter