Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Las Vegas, NV
Issued by NWS Las Vegas, NV
262 FXUS65 KVEF 080428 AFDVEF Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Las Vegas NV 928 PM PDT Fri Jun 7 2024 .SYNOPSIS...High pressure will gradually break down this weekend as a trough approaches the West Coast. Isolated afternoon thunderstorms will occur over portions of Inyo County and south central Nevada through Saturday. Temperatures will slowly retreat over the weekend, but will remain above normal into next week. && .UPDATE...Thunderstorm activity continues this evening over southern Nye County and northern Death Valley National Park. Storms are moving southward and generally weakening. Storms have not been producing much rain or wind, but have been prolific lightning producers. Storms will continue to diminish overnight. && .PREV DISCUSSION...1255 PM PDT Fri Jun 7 2024... .SHORT TERM...through Sunday night. Temperatures this afternoon are on track to peak 1-3 degrees lower than Thursday, but will still be close to tying or breaking record highs. The slight cooling is due to 500mb height falls associated with a weak shortwave trough moving over CA/NV. The 12Z Las Vegas sounding revealed noticeable drying in the 600-500 layer compared to yesterday and will not support the kind of cumulus development and showers late this afternoon over the Spring Mountains that were observed yesterday. However, there will be sufficient moisture (0.75- 1.0" PWAT values), instability and some dynamic lift associated with the aforementioned trough that will enhance convection this afternoon and evening resulting in isolated to scattered thunderstorms extending from central/southern Inyo County across central Nevada then gradually diminishing this evening after sunset. The heat wave will lose its grip on our region by Saturday evening. A more pronounced, but weak, trough moving into the California Coast will bring temperatures down an additional 2-3 degrees Saturday and another 3-5 degrees Sunday...leading to highs 100-105 degrees across most of the Mojave Desert sites. No changes to the Excessive Heat Warning/Heat Advisories, the majority of which will expire this evening followed by Death Valley, and portions of Clark/southern Nye counties Saturday evening. Isolated showers and thunderstorms will be confined to the Sierra and central/northern Nevada Saturday and Sunday afternoon. Afternoon south-southwest breezes will occur each day with peak gusts 20-25 mph Saturday and 25-30 mph Sunday afternoon. .LONG TERM...Monday through Thursday. Trough moving into the west coast will help develop a cutoff low off the southern California coast Monday and remain nearly stationary before being caught up in mean flow Wednesday or Thursday and pushed northeast into the Desert Southwest. There is no indication at this time that we will see any moisture influx with this low, but as the previous shift mentioned, there are often surprises with these systems. The latest extended model ensembles show a broad trough digging into the western US late next week. Although we could see a slight bump in temperatures Tuesday and Wednesday, it looks like temperatures could fall closer to normal toward the end of next week. && .LONG TERM...Monday through Thursday. Trough moving into the west coast will help develop a cutoff low off the southern California coast Monday and remain nearly stationary before being caught up in mean flow Wednesday or Thursday and pushed northeast into the Desert Southwest. There is no indication at this time that we will see any moisture influx with this low, but as the previous shift mentioned, there are often surprises with these systems. The latest extended model ensembles show a broad trough digging into the western US late next week. Although we could see a slight bump in temperatures Tuesday and Wednesday, it looks like temperatures could fall closer to normal toward the end of next week. && .AVIATION...For Harry Reid...The winds will become more southerly by mid afternoon and then southwesterly late this afternoon. Wind gusts of 15 to 20 knot will continue into the evening hours before dropping off around sunset. Winds will become light and variable overnight before east to southeast winds develop again during the late morning hours on Saturday. No operationally significant cloud cover other than BKN high clouds above 20k during the late afternoon and evening hours. For the rest of southern Nevada, northwest Arizona and southeast California...Similar to yesterday, KBIH will see afternoon convection in the higher terrain surrounding the Owens Valleys. Low confidence in any showers or thunderstorms moving off the terrain and impacting the terminal. However, outflow winds could result in breezy winds from varying directions. Breezy southerly-to- southwesterly winds will continue at most terminals with 15 to 20 knot wind gusts continuing into the evening hours before dropping off. The exception being KDAG will favor a more westerly to west- southwesterly direction with 20 to 30 knot wind gusts. Similar winds are expected again on Saturday. && .CLIMATE...Several record high temperatures and record high minimum temperatures have been tied or broken this week. The table below shows the daily record high temperature and record high minimum temperature for June 7 and June 8. RECORD HIGH FRI, JUNE 7 SAT, JUNE 8 Record(Yr) Record(Yr) Las Vegas 109(2013) 112(2013) Bishop 103(2013) 105(2016) Needles 117(2013) 118(1955) Barstow-Daggett 112(1985) 113(2013) Kingman 106(2013) 107(1955) Death Valley 123(1995) 123(2013) RECORD WARM FRI, JUNE 7 SAT, JUNE 8 LOW Record(Yr) Record(Yr) Las Vegas 86(2010) 84(2016) Bishop 61(2016) 64(2014) Needles 95(2016) 85(2013) Barstow-Daggett 81(2002) 77(2016) Kingman 74(1928) 74(1927) Death Valley 93(2006) 94(2022) && .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...Spotters are encouraged to report any significant weather or impacts according to standard operating procedures. && $$ SHORT TERM...Adair LONG TERM...Gorelow AVIATION...Czyzyk For more forecast information...see us on our webpage: https://weather.gov/lasvegas or follow us on Facebook and Twitter