Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Las Vegas, NV
Issued by NWS Las Vegas, NV
744 FXUS65 KVEF 110853 AFDVEF Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Las Vegas NV 152 AM PDT Tue Jun 11 2024 .SYNOPSIS...Areas of excessive heat will be the main weather concern through Wednesday as a ridge builds over the region. A weak weather system moving through Thursday and Friday will allow for slight cooling and an increase in surface winds...but temperatures will remain above normal through the weekend. Uncertainty increases next week with potential for breezy conditions and possibly a more noteworthy cool down. && .SHORT TERM...through Friday. A spike in temperatures will occur today through Wednesday under a ridge amplifying over the Desert Southwest while a large cutoff low circulates southwest of San Diego. Highs will increase 4-5 degrees across our region today then another 1-2 degrees Wednesday leading to major HeatRisk across portions of Mohave, Clark, southern Nye and Inyo counties. Temperatures will approach 110 degrees again in Las Vegas Wednesday. The Excessive Heat Warning for these areas remains in effect from 10 am today through 9 pm Wednesday evening. The cutoff low will eventually reconnect with increasing southwest flow aloft and slowly lift inland Thursday. The center of the low will traverse the area between Las Vegas and Yuma Thursday night before moving over Arizona and the Four Corners on Friday. The circulation will manage to bring limited moisture up through western Arizona Thursday leading to a 15-20 percent chance of thunderstorms over northeast Mohave County late in the afternoon and evening. The rest of the region will remain dry with high temperatures pulling back a few degrees, but holding several degrees above normal. South winds 10-15 mph gusting 20-30 mph will develop across most of the region Thursday as the upper low moves inland. .LONG TERM...This Weekend and Early Next Week. The weather pattern is expected to transition late this weekend and early next week as we lose the influence of the ridge. Low confidence in how everything sets up synoptically though as there are significant differences in long range model camps on how an incoming trough will interact with the weakening ridge. Many models have some flavor of the trough digging south into the region from the Pacific Northwest, however there are differences in how deep the trough digs and how quickly it will continue its eastward progression. Increasing confidence there will be some type of cooling trend but unsure what temperatures will look like. NBM ensemble high temperature spread for that time period is very large with anything from near normal to well below normal, especially early next week. Depending on the exact setup of the trough, winds could increase as well. Currently, there are some ensemble members of 40 MPH or higher gusts on area meteograms for Sunday into early next week, so the chance for impactful winds is non-zero. More notable, with dry conditions and the potential for increasing winds, fire danger would increase. SPC fire weather outlooks highlight a 40% potential for increased fire danger on Saturday and Sunday in portions of southern Nevada into western Arizona. Will need to monitor wind and fuel trends in case fire danger rapidly increases. && .AVIATION...For Harry Reid...Expecting a predominantly light and diurnal wind pattern through the TAF period, with east/southeast winds during the day and south/southwest at night. Speeds generally in the 5-8 knot range, with a 20% chance of 10+ knots at times this afternoon and evening. Clear skies. For the rest of southern Nevada, northwest Arizona and southeast California...Light and diurnal winds anticipated at all of the area TAF sites today and tonight. Sustained winds should peak around 8-12 knots this afternoon and evening, with occasional gusts up to 16 knots possible. Mostly clear skies as just a few mid-level and high clouds linger over the lower Colorado River Valley and KBIH. && .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...Spotters are encouraged to report any significant weather or impacts according to standard operating procedures. && $$ SHORT TERM...Adair LONG TERM...Nickerson AVIATION...Woods For more forecast information...see us on our webpage: https://weather.gov/lasvegas or follow us on Facebook and Twitter