-- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. --
104
FXAK67 PAJK 091411
AFDAJK

Southeast Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Juneau AK
611 AM AKDT Sun Jun 9 2024

.SHORT TERM...
-- Changed Discussion --
The upper level cloud deck from a weak frontal band
which moved over the panhandle is departing the area as of the
time of writing. Some lower clouds persist along the outer coast
in conjunction with a marine layer, and anticipate the possibility
of a few showers as a result of said marine layer. Daytime heating
will help dissipate the marine layer, or at least drive it back
offshore late in the morning through the afternoon, paving the way
for a window of clearing skies ahead of the arrival of the next
organized system. A few showers may linger across the N panhandle
through the day as residual moisture lingers over the area, but am
not expecting anything substantial.

Chances of rain will begin to increase during the evening and
overnight time frame beginning across the outer coast and working
inwards as the next system begins to approach the area. The system
itself isn`t all that impressive - it`s origins as a frontal band
with some embedded cyclogenesis are factors that in this case will
work against it, given its distance from the primary low on the
far western Gulf. However, breezy conditions are anticipated for
some areas. Winds of between 10 to 15 kt for the inner channels
through the day, though a few areas like Lynn Canal and ocean
entrances may occasionally reach 20 kt. Some ocean effect breezes
are possible. High temperatures will warm into the upper 60s or
lower 70s for many areas, but cooler 850 mb temperatures than
yesterday will help put a cap on temperatures reaching quite as
warm as they did on Saturday. Some changes were made to the wind
forecast - diminished the wind speeds across the outer coastal
waters with the upcoming system and changed some wind directions
and wind speeds in the Icy Strait Corridor. Otherwise, left the
temperature and precipitation forecast largely unchanged.

.LONG TERM.../Next week/...Looking ahead to next week, overall,
not much looks to change.

500mb low will meander west to east through the gulf far south of
the panhandle through the week. This would put SE AK in a showery or
on/off rain type weather pattern. So in general, kept the chances
for rain in the forecast through the mid range forecast period.
Light rain overall, nothing real impactful here.

Temperatures will also cool back to below normal with increased
cloud cover.

Wind speeds will slowly decrease through the week but inner channel
winds still look to be on the stronger side, upwards of 15 to 20
knots, before the pressure gradient weakens.

Lastly, while wind speeds were limited to 20 knots, there is
evidence of speeds upwards of 25 to 30 knots. Confidence is low in
those higher wind speeds until after the frontal passage tomorrow.
Once we get a peak at how the atmosphere will respond to the front,
and we get more hi-res models, the inner channel wind speed forecast
will increase in confidence, allowing for those forecast values to be
increased or decreased accordingly.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.AVIATION...
-- Changed Discussion --
High overcast and otherwise VFR conditions continue for a
majority of the inside waters of the panhandle. However the outer
coast has begun to see the influence of a marine layer due to a
dissipating front, with a broken or overcast ceiling of ranging from
2000 to as low as 500 ft in some areas. This is expected to persist
through the morning hours before some brief improvement in the
afternoon hours with thermally driven winds. Sunday night another
front approaches, bringing rain and lowering ceilings the panhandle
Sunday night into Monday. No LLWS concerns during the TAF period,
but can`t rule out localized sea breeze effects.
-- End Changed Discussion --


&&

.AJK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory for PKZ022-053-641>644-651-652-661>664-671-
     672.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...GFS
LONG TERM....GJS
AVIATION...STJ

Visit us at http://www.weather.gov/Juneau