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FXAK67 PAJK 082314
AFDAJK

Southeast Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Juneau AK
314 PM AKDT Sat Jun 8 2024

.SHORT TERM...
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/ through Sunday night / The main low in the
northwestern gulf is swinging a weak frontal band along the outer
coast. The associate front is still off shore and based on Radar
data the rain band is there and wind flow is along shore. It may
clip the coast. A follow on wave will be moving into the central
gulf and is expected to push the front into Southeast Alaska
Sunday night. Anticipate the best chances of rain after midnight
into Monday. Winds with this system Have up to 25 to maybe 30 kt
starting the later half of Sunday to the outer coast. With the
main low center staying over the western half of the gulf, the
intensity of front moving towards the panhandle will not be as
strong as it could be with the weakening gradients.

.LONG TERM.../Next week/...Looking ahead to next week, overall,
not much looks to change.

500mb low will meander west to east through the gulf far south of
the panhandle through the week. This would put SE AK in a showery or
on/off rain type weather pattern. So in general, kept the chances
for rain in the forecast through the mid range forecast period.
Light rain overall, nothing real impactful here.

Temperatures will also cool back to below normal with increased
cloud cover.

Wind speeds will slowly decrease through the week but inner channel
winds still look to be on the stronger side, upwards of 15 to 20
knots, before the pressure gradient weakens.

Lastly, while wind speeds were limited to 20 knots, there is
evidence of speeds upwards of 25 to 30 knots. Confidence is low in
those higher wind speeds until after the frontal passage tomorrow.
Once we get a peak at how the atmosphere will respond to the front,
and we get more hi-res models, the inner channel wind speed forecast
will increase in confidence, allowing for those forecast values to be
increased or decreased accordingly.
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&&

.AVIATION...
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Thermally driven winds and VFR conditions dominate the
region Sat afternoon. Expect VFR will persist through Sunday
morning before some MVFR CIGs begin to impact the NE gulf and
outer coast as a weakening front moves across the gulf.
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&&

.AJK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory for PKZ022-053-641>644-651-652-661>664-671-
     672.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Bezenek
LONG TERM....GJS
AVIATION...BC

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