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550
FXUS61 KBGM 060726
AFDBGM

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Binghamton NY
326 AM EDT Thu Jun 6 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
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Another round of rain showers and thunderstorms expected by
mid-morning through the afternoon. Storms east of the Finger
Lakes could be severe, with strong winds as the main threat. An
upper level low then brings an unsettled, cooler and showery
weather pattern for Friday through the weekend.
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&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
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245 AM Update...

Scattered showers have moved across the region tonight. Removed
any mention of thunder from the forecast for the next 6 hours
thanks to overnight stability. Much of the heavy rain in the
area has stayed south of the CWA so the flooding threat tonight
has subsided. Temps tonight will remain warm thanks to clouds
and southerly flow keeping a warm, humid airmass in place. Lows
will be in the mid to upper 60s.

A brief lull in shower activity is expected from around sunrise
to the mid morning. The next shortwave and accompanying front
will move into the western portion of the CWA by late morning,
bringing scattered rain showers and isolated thunderstorm
chances. Thunderstorms are expected to ramp up as they progress
eastward and daytime heating allows for instability to develop.
700-1000 j/kg of CAPE is expected to develop by early afternoon
ahead of the incoming front. Pockets of 0-6km shear values
around 30-40kts will allow for thunderstorm organization and
combined with the expected instability, severe thunderstorms
will be possible east of the Finger Lakes with gusty winds as
the main threat. Shear vectors are lining up somewhat perpendicular
to the expected storm motion, so these storms are expected to
be pretty progressive. While they will be progressive, PWATs
between 1.5 and 1.8 will allow for heavy downpours in these
thunderstorms that could lead to localized flooding across areas
prone to it. Storms are expected to be east of the region by
late afternoon. A few isolated showers may pop up across the
area during the evening and into the overnight hours as an upper
level trough moves into the area from the Great Lakes, but most
will stay dry. Temperatures today will climb into the mid to
upper 70s.

Cooler and drier air will filter into the region overnight
behind the front. Temps will fall into the mid to upper 50s with
some patchy valley fog possible.

Friday will be another day of unsettled weather as the upper
level trough moves overhead, with the trough axis just east of
us by the afternoon. Cooler air in the mid levels will provide
increased low level lapse rates that, combined with a weak
shortwave sliding through CNY and daytime heating, should kick
off afternoon showers and isolated thunderstorms across the
region. Rainfall will be light thanks to a much drier airmass in
place, with up to 0.25 inches of rain expected. Temps Friday
will be cooler as WNW flow continues to advect Canadian air into
the region. Highs will climb into the mid 60s to low 70s, with
warmer valleys in NEPA hitting the mid 70s.
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&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
306 PM Update...

A complex blocking pattern across Canada and the North Atlantic will
result in broad troughing across the northeastern CONUS through
early next week. Embedded in that pattern, a closed mid-level low
will move slowly from Georgian Bay to the Ottawa Valley between
Friday morning and Saturday night. Several weaker shortwave troughs
will swing through our area like spokes on a wheel through the
period, modulating periods of showers and thunderstorms, with cooler
air aloft bringing below normal temperatures.

Timing of a shortwave trough on Friday looks to be fairly well-timed
with the diurnal cycle for fairly widespread showers and isolated
thunderstorms during the afternoon. Bulk shear values are
impressive, 50-60 knots, but instability looks to be weak, with the
typically hot-running NAM suggesting max CAPE values of 300-400
J/Kg.

Precip looks to die off quickly after dark as the shortwave trough
pushes east of the area and daytime heating abates.

Additional showers look to favor mainly areas north of the Twin
Tiers on Saturday as another shortwave trough rolls through early in
the day. Another more significant round of showers is possible
Saturday night as a stronger shortwave trough drops through the
area. Though uncertainty remains high, a narrow band of heavier
precipitation is possible with this disturbance.

High temps look to hang around the upper-60s to lower-70s Friday and
Saturday, roughly 5 degrees below seasonal normals.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
306 PM Update...

As the slow-moving upper low finally moves into the Saint Lawrence
Valley Sunday, a final shortwave trough looks to dig down into the
lower Great Lakes. This will bring widespread rain showers and
isolated thunderstorms across the region, along with continued
cooler than normal temperatures.

Cyclonic NW flow will persist into Monday, with additional mostly
diurnally-driven showers expected. A weak shortwave trough pushing
through may favor the late morning and early afternoon hours for
precip, with drier conditions moving in by evening. Temperatures
look to remain cooler than normal, with highs in the upper-60s to
lower-70s again.

Finally, a drier spell looks to set up beginning Tuesday.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
A messy night as scattered rain showers move through the region,
bringing varying restrictions to our terminals.

IFR ceilings are expected at AVP/BGM/ELM later tonight as temps
drop to near the dewpoint. AVP should see a wind shift in the
next couple of hours that should bring upslope flow out of the
valley and up to the airport, lowering ceilings. Same goes for
BGM with southerly upslope flow bringing low clouds before
sunrise. ELM has been more tricky as guidance has been somewhat
inconsistent. Current MVFR vis that wasn`t forecast lead to
increased confidence in a period of IFR ceilings before sunrise.

During the late morning into late afternoon, a round of showers
and storms are expected to cross the CWA from east to west. The
highest confidence for TSRA is at BGM/SYR/RME so a PROB30 group
was added at these terminals. Confidence was not high enough to
include IFR in these TAFs, but a period of heavy rain could drop
vsby down to IFR for a period in the afternoon. Conditions at
all terminals should rise to VFR by mid to late afternoon as a
cold front pushes through the area.


Outlook...

Thursday Evening... A few passing showers could drop conditions
to MVFR/Fuel Alt for a brief period. Otherwise, VFR expected.


Thursday night through Sunday...

Occasional showers with brief restrictions likely.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...None.
NY...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...JTC
NEAR TERM...JTC/MWG
SHORT TERM...MPH
LONG TERM...MPH
AVIATION...JTC