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332
FXUS61 KBGM 041912
AFDBGM

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Binghamton NY
312 PM EDT Tue Jun 4 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
Another warm day is expected on Wednesday with scattered showers
and thunderstorms developing in the late afternoon and
continuing overnight. A slow moving upper level low pressure
system brings cooler temperatures and more showers to the
region starting Thursday, and continuing into the weekend.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
3 PM Update

A few isolated showers or a thunderstorms will be possible
through this evening with quiet weather expected after sunset.

Tomorrow will be another warm day, with highs well into the 80s
for most of the area. Most of the day should remain dry, but an
approaching warm front from the south will kick off some
scattered showers and thunderstorms late in the afternoon/early
evening. Warm front continue moving into the area overnight and
scattered showers/thunderstorms will continue. Model guidance
has really cut back on the amount of rain that is expected with
this first wave of showers and storms tomorrow night with the
best instability and forcing holding off until Thursday. Started
to pull back on PoPs and QPF some from the previous forecast,
but will wait another model cycle and see how the CAMs respond
as we get a little closer before pulling back too much. NAMNest
is really sparse with any convective activity through the
overnight hours, while the HRRR is more aggressive at this time.
Based on the little amount of instability with MUCAPE values of
just a couple of hundred joules on model soundings, starting to
lean towards less coverage in convection Wednesday night.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
-- Changed Discussion --
310 PM Update...

An upper-level low moving over the Great Lakes region Wednesday
night into Thursday will push a frontal boundary into Central NY
and NE PA. Deep southwesterly flow will supply warm, moist air
into the air, helping to drive prolonged rainfall through the
day on Thursday. This initial frontal boundary appears
progressive, decreasing chances for flooding. Though, with the
combination of high precipitable water values of 1.5 to 1.8
inches, as well as long, skinny CAPE profiles in soundings and
the warm cloud layer between 10-11 kft, there is still a chance
for flash flooding in areas were heavy rain trains. Overall,
we`re currently looking at total rainfall values of up to a half
inch to three-quarter inch of rain mainly east of I-81, and
between a quarter to a half inch of rainfall west of I-81.
Additionally, the Weather Prediction Center has our area under a
Marginal Risk for flash flooding (at least 5% chance of flash
flooding) for Thursday.
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&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
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310 PM Update...

The aforementioned upper-level low will swing down further into
our area and become quasi-stationary through the weekend.
Chances for rain showers and afternoon thunderstorms will remain
through Sunday morning, before this system finally pushes off to
the east-northeast. We`ll see a very slight warm up as this
system exits the area, but will mainly be in the 70s all
weekend and into early next week.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.AVIATION /19Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
VFR conditions are expected for most of the area through the
period. There is a very small chance for an isolated afternoon
shower or thunderstorm today, but chances are too low to include
at any one location. Conditions remain clear across the area
later this evening, with a few clouds moving in from the
southeast late tonight. Some of the guidance is hinting at a
marine stratus layer moving into AVP Wednesday morning. For now,
just hinted at this with a SCT007 deck because confidence is too
low on how far north this stratus layer will push into our
region.

Outlook...

Wednesday night through Saturday...Increasing chance of
showers/storms and associated restrictions.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...None.
NY...Air Quality Alert until 11 PM EDT this evening for NYZ062.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...MPK
NEAR TERM...MPK
SHORT TERM...KL
LONG TERM...KL
AVIATION...MPK