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848
FXUS61 KBUF 302300
AFDBUF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Buffalo NY
700 PM EDT Thu May 30 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
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High pressure will settle across the Great Lakes and Ohio Valley
tonight with chilly temperatures and even some frost across the
Southern Tier. Dry weather will prevail through Saturday with day to
day warming as the high pressure drifts slowly to the east coast.
Weakening low pressure will then move into the Ohio Valley late
Saturday night and Sunday, bringing a chance of a showers and a few
thunderstorms, especially across Western NY.
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&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
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High pressure will drift from the central Great Lakes to the Ohio
Valley tonight, providing mainly clear and dry weather. Any
remaining diurnal cumulus east of Lake Ontario and across the higher
terrain of the Southern Tier will dissipate this evening. An upper
level jet streak will move south across Quebec and into New England
late tonight and Friday morning, with high clouds spreading into the
eastern Lake Ontario region.

Low temperatures will drop back into the 40s on the lake plains,
with mid to upper 30s across the Southern Tier, particularly in the
sheltered valleys where the greatest potential for frost resides. A
Frost Advisory remains in effect for the Southern Tier as well as
Wyoming and southern Erie counties. The best chance for impactful
frost will likely be in Cattaraugus and Allegany counties where the
most widespread 30s will be found. For the North Country, expect
lows in the upper 30s to lower 40s with some help from the
increasing high clouds late tonight.

Friday...high pressure will drift from the Ohio Valley in the
morning to the eastern Great Lakes by late in the day. High clouds
in the morning east of Lake Ontario will thin, with abundant
sunshine areawide by afternoon. Temperatures will recover nicely
after the chilly start, with highs in the low 70s for lower
elevations and mid to upper 60s for high terrain.
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&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
Mid-level ridge axis centered over the eastern Great Lakes Friday
night will advance east towards the Northeast Saturday. Meanwhile,
mid-level closed low over northern Manitoba will allow a shortwave
trough to rotate through the base of the low, passing by to the
northwest of the area Sunday.

With the mid-level ridge axis passing east, the surface high
pressure centered over the Ohio Valley Friday night, will drift
southeast toward the Atlantic coastline by Saturday night. Overall
this will support the dry conditions to persist through the first
half of the weekend.

Saturday night and Sunday, the aforementioned shortwave will have
weakened, though its remnants will sweep across the area. As a
result a weak cold front will slide across the area from west to
east late Saturday night through Sunday supporting a chance of
showers and possibly a thunderstorm. Despite the showers, Sunday
will not be a complete washout as there will be plenty of rain-free
time.

The next upper level ridge will then support high pressure to slide
over the region Sunday night through Monday night supporting the
return of dry weather.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
The next potent upper level trough will slide across the upper
Midwest into the Great Lakes Tuesday and Wednesday, before becoming
stagnant over the Great Lakes Thursday allowing multiple shortwaves
to round its base. While this pattern will create some uncertainty
in the forecast for the middle and later portions of next week, the
initial introduction of the trough will support a surface low over
northern Quebec to drop a surface cold front across the region
supporting a chance for showers and possibly a few thunderstorms.

With the aforementioned shortwaves rounding the base of the trough,
another surface low will track northeast from the Central Plains to
the upper Midwest Wednesday and Thursday. Attendant surface warm and
cold fronts will then slide across the region during this time
introducing the chance for some showers and possibly a few
thunderstorms.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
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VFR will prevail through Friday. The remain diurnal cumulus with
VFR bases east of Lake Ontario and across the Southern Tier will
dissipate this evening. A batch of high cirrus clouds will cross the
eastern Lake Ontario region late tonight and Friday morning as an
upper level jet streak propagates from Quebec into New England.
These high clouds will thin Friday, leaving mainly clear skies and
VFR to prevail.

Outlook...

Saturday...VFR.
Sunday...VFR/MVFR with a chance of showers and possibly a few
thunderstorms, particularly across Western NY.
Monday...Mainly VFR with a slight chance for a shower across the
Southern Tier.
Tuesday...Mainly VFR with a chance for showers.
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&&

.MARINE...
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A northwest breeze will bring some chop to Lake Ontario overnight.
Winds will become west and increase to around 15 knots on Lake
Ontario Friday, producing a moderate chop on the lake during the
afternoon and evening. Light winds will return Saturday as high
pressure builds over the eastern Great Lakes.
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&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...Frost Advisory from midnight tonight to 7 AM EDT Friday for
     NYZ012-019>021-085.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...Hitchcock
NEAR TERM...Hitchcock
SHORT TERM...EAJ
LONG TERM...EAJ
AVIATION...Hitchcock
MARINE...Hitchcock