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FXUS61 KBUF 300217
AFDBUF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Buffalo NY
1017 PM EDT Wed May 29 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
Clouds will gradually clear tonight as a cold front exits the area.
High pressure will then settle over the Great Lakes Thursday through
Friday before drifting to the east coast this weekend. This will
bring an extended period of dry weather, with cool temperatures
giving way to warming by the weekend.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THURSDAY EVENING/...
-- Changed Discussion --
A mid level circulation moving east across southern PA will continue
to push some mid/high clouds north across Western and Central NY
through the first half of tonight, but in general expect a gradual
clearing trend from north to south overnight. Ongoing weak cold
advection and clearing skies will allow temperatures to drop back
into the 40s away from the immediate lakeshores overnight, with a
few upper 30s readings possible in the typically cooler sheltered
Southern Tier valleys and North Country. There will be some patchy
river valley fog across the Southern Tier overnight.

Thursday, high pressure will build through the central Great Lakes,
with associated dry air and subsidence bringing sunshine to the
region. Expect some diurnal cumulus to develop late morning through
the afternoon given the cool air aloft, but dry air entrainment from
the overall dry airmass will likely keep these scattered in nature.
Temperatures will continue to run a little below average, with highs
in the mid to upper 60s for lower elevations and lower 60s for
higher terrain.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THURSDAY EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
Fantastic stretch of weather on the way as we cap off the month of
May and transition into June this period.

To start, deep positively tilted troughing over the Northeast will
slide towards and away from the East Coast Thursday night into
Friday morning. In its immediate wake, stout high pressure ridging
at all levels will build across the central Great Lakes and Ohio
Valley. A cool airmass lagging behind the trough axis (850H temps
around 5C) combined with increasing subsidence drying will lead to a
rather chilly night for portions of the area. While lows will range
in the 40s for most areas, temps will likely dip into the upper and
possibly mid 30s across the interior Southern Tier, as well as up
across the Tug Hill and Western Adirondacks. Not out of the question
some patchy frost develops in these areas as well.

Fair, dry, and warmer weather will then be the story Friday through
Saturday as the high pressure ridge crests over and eventually east
of the Great Lakes. Friday will feature mostly sunny skies, though
there could be some mid/high clouds encroaching on the western
horizon Saturday as a warm front moves into the region. Highs Friday
will be in the upper 60s to low 70s, with more of a range of 70s
across the region Saturday. Low humidity can be expected both days
as there should be decent mixing of the dry low level airmass.

Two weakly couples shortwaves, one across northern Ontario Province
and another down across the Ohio Valley, will translate eastward in
tandem Saturday night. This system will further weaken as it runs up
against the ridge of high pressure over the Northeast, though a
diffuse cold frontal boundary will likely reach Western NY late
Saturday night. Shower chances with this feature remain low (15-25%)
as there remains some uncertainty in the exact timing, the depth of
the moisture ahead of the boundary and how much the southern
shortwave weakens before arriving. This being said, areas from the
Genesee Valley eastward are still nigh on guaranteed another rain-
free night, albeit under cloudier skies. Temps Saturday night will
be notably warmer compared to the previous nights in the 50s to low
60s across the area.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
High pressure ridging will remain anchored off the Southeast Coast
through the first half of the week as several low pressure
disturbances take aim at the eastern Great Lakes. This will lead to
a period of weather punctuated by warming temperatures to above
normal readings, as well as on and off chances for showers and
thunderstorms.

The first of these low pressure waves will be in the process of
weakening as it crosses through western NY and Pennsylvania as we
open the period Sunday. While the bulk of the day is expected to be
rain-free, showers and potentially a few thunderstorms will be
possible across the region as it moves through, especially across
the Southern Tier and western Finger Lakes. Mainly dry weather
across the region Sunday night through Monday night as upper level
ridging is briefly reestablished over the eastern Great Lakes,
though a few additional showers may develop across the Southern
Tier. The overall longwave pattern across the eastern CONUS becomes
fairly uncertain moving into Tuesday, though deeper GOMEX based
moisture is expected to begin advecting into the region ahead of
several upper level disturbances moving through the otherwise zonal
flow aloft. This will lead to more widespread chances for wet
weather Tuesday and Wednesday, though the finer details remain
uncertain at this time.

In contrast to the precipitation chances, confidence is much higher
in temperatures averaging above normal as we move further into the
first week of June. While temps Sunday should still range in the
70s, readings in the 80s will become increasingly common through
Wednesday, while overnight lows warm each night well into the 60s.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
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Mid/high clouds gradually clearing overnight with VFR prevailing in
most areas. Expect some patchy river valley fog and local IFR across
the Southern Tier overnight through early Thursday morning. Some of
this may briefly impact KJHW around sunrise Thursday.

Once the early morning patchy fog dissipates, VFR will prevail for
the rest of Thursday with nothing more than scattered diurnal
cumulus as high pressure builds into the Great Lakes.

Outlook...

Friday through Saturday...VFR.
Sunday...Mainly VFR with a slight chance for showers.
Monday...Mainly VFR with a slight chance for a shower across the
Southern Tier.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.MARINE...
Light northerly flow will bring some modest chop to the lakes
through tonight into Thursday.

Winds will back to westerly later Thursday...and then eventually
become light and variable Friday into the weekend as the surface
high crests over the Lakes.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...Hitchcock
NEAR TERM...AR/Hitchcock
SHORT TERM...PP
LONG TERM...PP
AVIATION...Hitchcock
MARINE...AR