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208
FXUS61 KBUF 282110
AFDBUF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Buffalo NY
510 PM EDT Tue May 28 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
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Widespread showers with a rumble of thunder will continue into
this evening. Showers decrease in coverage tonight through
Wednesday, with dry weather returning Thursday into the weekend.
We can also expect a day to day warming trend.
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&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
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Regional radar shows plenty of showers across the eastern Great
Lakes region this evening. There are two focused areas of
showers and a few thunderstorms, the first being an area of
showers and a few thunderstorms will continue across the Saint
Lawrence Valley into the northern Tug Hill region. Second, a
line of strong showers and a few thunderstorms is almost
perfectly aligned with Interstate 90 from Buffalo to Weedsport
this evening. Heavy downpours are the main hazard with this
activity including visibility falling to 1-2SM in the heaviest
showers.

A robust shortwave rotating through the base of a longwave trough
will crosses our forecast area bringing widespread showers into
part of this evening. Elevated CAPE of 100-200 j/kg could even
allow for a thunderstorm or two.

Additionally...a few of the stronger cells will have the
potential to produce torrential downpours.

Otherwise...it will be cooler today and with H850T`s around +6
to +7 this will support highs only in the 60s.

The shortwave responsible for the showers will exit tonight. With
dwindling support shower activity will wind down. We will remain
overcast though with temperatures settling into the low to mid 50s.

While the base of the longwave trough will remain centered over our
region on Wednesday...shortwaves moving through the deep cyclonic
flow should largely track by to our south. A weak secondary cold
front will stall across Pennsylvania at that time as well...so the
only organized shower activity for our area will be over the western
Southern Tier. Otherwise...partial clearing will be found further to
the north...particularly east of Lake Ontario. Unfortunately...high
temperatures will once again only in the 60s.
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&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Mid-level trough axis will sweep across the eastern Great Lakes
Wednesday night through Thursday. Despite the trough overhead,
departing low pressure and surface cold front across the southern
Northeast and northern Mid-Atlantic coast line Wednesday night, will
give way Thursday to surface high pressure gradually building east
into the eastern Great Lakes. Surface high pressure will then reside
across the area through Saturday.

Given the weather pattern, dry weather will persist from Wednesday
night through Saturday. In addition to the dry weather, temperatures
will start off on the chillier side for the end of May with lows
Wednesday and Thursday nights bottoming out in the 40s with a few
upper 30s possible across the higher terrain of the Western Southern
Tier and the eastern Lake Ontario region. With the exit of the mid-
level trough, temperatures will gradually warm by the end of the
week. Highs by Saturday will range in the 70s, with the warmer
readings occuring across the Lake Plains and the Genesee Valley.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
A broad upper level ridge and surface high pressure will shift east
of the region through the back half of the weekend. While this
should allow for generally quiet and rain-free weather to persist
across the eastern Great Lakes, confidence is low in how quickly the
ridge breaks down. Depending on how this longwave pattern evolves,
some weak shortwave energy and a small uptick and moisture could
sneak in from the west and bring a few showers or thunderstorms to
the region Saturday night through Monday, though chances remain low
(15-30%). More potent shortwave energy and deeper moisture is
expected to move into the Great Lakes region moving further into the
workweek, which will bring greater chances for more widespread
precipitation by Tuesday.

With high pressure ridging moving towards and away from the East
Coast leading to a gentle prevailing southerly flow, temperatures
will continue to see a day-to-day warming trend this period. High
temperatures moving into the first week of June are expected to be
mainly in the 80s, with overnight lows in the upper 50s and 60s.

&&

.AVIATION /21Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
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Regional radar shows plenty of showers across the eastern Great
Lakes region this evening. There are two focused areas of
showers and a few thunderstorms, the first being an area of
showers and a few thunderstorms will continue across the Saint
Lawrence Valley into the northern Tug Hill region. Second, a
line of strong showers and a few thunderstorms is almost
perfectly aligned with Interstate 90 from Buffalo to Weedsport
this evening. Heavy downpours are the main hazard with this
activity including visibility falling to 1-2SM in the heaviest
showers.

A wealth of low level moisture circulating around a deep storm over
Quebec will bring a mixture of low end VFR to MVFR CIGS. There will
also be some IFR with the heavier showers...and even an isolated
thunderstorm or two this afternoon.

Tonight...northerly flow will produce a mixture of MVFR to IFR CIGS.
There will also be some showers but coverage should decrease as we
progress through the night.

Outlook...

Wednesday...MVFR with a chance of showers.
Thursday through Saturday...VFR.
Sunday...Mainly VFR with a slight chance of a shower.
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&&

.MARINE...
Moderate to fresh westerlies will continue to support small craft
advisories today for all of the nearshore waters.

A weakening pressure gradient will then produce moderate north to
northwest breezes tonight and Wednesday. This will produce some
modest chop on both lakes.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...Beach Hazards Statement until 11 PM EDT this evening for
     NYZ005-006.
     Beach Hazards Statement until 8 PM EDT this evening for NYZ010-
     019-085.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 8 PM EDT this evening for LEZ040-
         041.
         Small Craft Advisory until 11 PM EDT this evening for
         LOZ042>045.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...AR
NEAR TERM...AR/HSK
SHORT TERM...EAJ
LONG TERM...PP
AVIATION...AR/HSK
MARINE...AR