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011
FXUS62 KCAE 150539
AFDCAE

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Columbia SC
139 AM EDT Tue Jul 15 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
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Weak upper ridging will begin to break down, leading to lower
daytime temperatures and higher rain chances during the mid week
period. A new upper ridge should then build in from the east to
end the week with slowly warming temperatures.
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.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
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Key Message(s):

- Isolated to scattered storms this afternoon evening

Abundant low-level moisture early this morning could lead to
patchy fog and low stratus. Any fog/stratus would dissipate an
hour or two after sunrise.

Low pressure and a weak upper trough shift westward today into
northern FL. This will bring a subsidence zone into
eastern/central SC limiting the overall convective coverage
this afternoon. However surface convergence along a seabreeze
and upslope flow into the Upstate should trigger isolated to
widely scattered convection despite weak subsidence. PWAT values
over the area are around 2 inches today which indicates some
potential for localized heavy rain. But a slightly stronger
storm motion vector today limits flooding concerns as storms
move off to the west. Storms will once again diminish in the
evening. Heights are a little lower today so highs should only
reach into the lower to mid 90s.
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.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
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Key message(s):

- Not as warm due to scattered afternoon and evening
  thunderstorms.

Another trough will break off and approach the region Wednesday
allowing thunderstorms to continue both days. Storm motions
Wednesday are forecast to be around 10 kt, but increase to near
20 kt by Thursday as the trough moves overhead and elongates the
wind field slightly. This means the greatest chance for locally
heavy rainfall will be on Wednesday, with slightly lower
chances on Thursday due to increased storm motion. High
temperatures will be near climo or in the lower 90s.
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.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
Key message(s):

- Temperatures warming into the weekend.

The trough that was near the area on Thursday will cross
Florida Saturday keeping afternoon thunderstorm chances in the
forecast through the weekend. High temperatures will also remain
near climo/ slightly above climo as low level thicknesses
slowly recover. Max heat index values each afternoon will be
near or just below advisory criteria (108 F).

&&

.AVIATION /05Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
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Early morning visibility and ceiling restrictions likely.

Abundant low-level moisture will create favorable conditions for
restrictions from 10Z to 14Z this morning. Guidance continues to
indicate low stratus and fog development towards sunrise
increasing confidence. Lingering mid-level clouds may cut down
on widespread fog development and therefore favor ceiling
restrictions.

VFR conditions should return by 15Z to all TAF sites. Expect SE
winds from 5 to 10 kts from late morning through the afternoon.
Similar conditions over the area to the previous day suggests
another round of scattered storms beginning at 18Z today.
Storms will trigger along outflow boundaries making them
possible at all TAF sites into the evening.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...Typical seasonal restrictions
possible in the extended with daily convection and patchy early
morning fog/stratus possible.
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&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...None.
GA...None.

&&

$$