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561
FXUS62 KCHS 052338
AFDCHS

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Charleston SC
738 PM EDT Wed Jun 5 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure will extend across the area through tonight. A
cold front will approach from the northwest on Thursday, then
slowly move through on Friday. High pressure returns for the
weekend, then another cold front will move through Monday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
-- Changed Discussion --
With a bit more CAPE and less CINH than last evening, and a mid
level short wave to move through between now and 2-5 am, we do
hold onto isolated to scattered PoPs through most of the night.
Where outflow boundary interactions occur there could still be
some gusty winds in a couple of storms. This might still prompt
the issuance of a Special Weather Statement. But with the loss
of daytime heating, the lack of shear, and poor lapse rates,
there is no risk for any severe weather.

Low temps will remain fairly mild within a light southerly
flow. In general, lows will range in the upper 60s/around 70
well inland to mid-upper 70s near the coast.
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&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Thursday: A shortwave trough is poised to ripple through the
southeastern states in the afternoon to evening hours. At the
surface a cold front will be positioned well to the west of the
forecast area. Ahead of the cold front moisture will pool into the
region, with PWATs increasing to around 1.6 inches. A combination of
the increased moisture and forcing from the shortwave and the
approaching cold front should result in decent shower and
thunderstorm coverage in the afternoon. PoPs are generally in the 40-
50% range across the region, decreasing from west to east in the
overnight hours. High temperatures are forecast to reach into the
low to mid 90s, with overnight lows in the low to mid 70s.

Friday and Saturday: Broad troughing will prevail aloft on Friday
and Saturday, while at the surface a cold front slowly pushes
through by Friday night. High pressure will begin building in at the
surface on Saturday. Not much in the way of precipitation is
expected with the cold front, however it will likely bring a
decrease in dew points. A slight chance of showers and thunderstorms
is possible on Friday afternoon, mainly along the coastal counties
associated with the passing cold front`s interactions with the local
sea breeze. PWATs Saturday are forecast to drop below 1 inch on,
with a dry forecast maintained. Temperatures each day are expected
to reach into the low 90s, with overnight lows in the mid to upper
60s, with around 70 at the beaches.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
A return to a typical summertime pattern of afternoon showers and
thunderstorms should return late in the weekend and into early next
week. A cold front is expected to approach the forecast area early
next week, with PWATs increasing to around 1.5 inches by mid week.
Isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms are possible each
afternoon through mid week due to the increased moisture and
interactions with the local sea breeze. Temperatures are expected to
be right around normal to slightly above normal.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
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KCHS/KJZI: Since there is a short wave moving through overnight,
we do show the potential for some convection. We include VCTS
from 06-09Z as a result. Otherwise, it`ll remain VFR. The
potential for SHRA/TSRA with the cold front late Thursday
occurs too late in the 00Z TAF cycle, so no mention at this
time. Both sites will become a little gusty ahead of the front
Thursday afternoon, peaking at least near 20 kt.

KSAV: In all likelihood what little convection there is upstream
from the terminal, will stay away through the night. So VFR is
forecast. Also, any SHRA/TSRA with a cold front late Thursday
occurs too late to include this far in advance. There will also
be some gusts Thursday afternoon, at least as high as 15-20 kt.

Extended Aviation Outlook: VFR.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.MARINE...
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Tonight: Southerly flow will prevail across the local waters
through the period with speeds mostly in the 10-15 kt range, but
the pressure gradient should become slightly stronger with
modest nocturnal surging overnight, suggesting the potential for
winds to gust between 15-20 kt at times. Seas are expected to
average between 2-3 feet.

Thursday through Sunday: SW winds on Thursday afternoon will shift
to the NW by Friday afternoon as a cold front slowly pushes through
the region. SW winds will resume by Sunday afternoon. Wind speeds on
Thursday will be slightly elevated, with 15 to 20 knots across the
marine zones. Thereafter, speeds should remain around 10 knots. Seas
are expected to average 2 to 3 ft through the period.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
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It`ll be close to 7.0 ft MLLW in Charleston harbor with this
evenings high tide. But since it looks so marginal, w e opted
not to issue any Coastal Flood Advisory.

Astronomical tides will remain elevated on Thursday. Although
the wind direction along the coast isn`t ideal for driving large
positive tidal departures, conditions should still be
sufficient to produce departures in the 0.4 to 0.6 ft.
Therefore, the high tide Thursday evening could peak right
around 7.0 ft MLLW in Charleston. Coastal Flood Advisories could
be needed for Charleston and coastal Colleton counties.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...None.
SC...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...
SHORT TERM...CPM
LONG TERM...CPM
AVIATION...
MARINE...