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291
FXUS62 KCHS 070258
AFDCHS

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Charleston SC
1058 PM EDT Thu Jun 6 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
A cold front will approach from the northwest tonight and move
through Friday morning. High pressure returns for the weekend,
then another cold front will move through Monday. High pressure
will build back in behind the front.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
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Tonight: Conditions should remain dry across most areas for the next
few hours, before the focus turns west for shower/thunderstorm
activity to develop in advance of a cold front approaching the
region late tonight. Some hi-res guidance suggests shower and
thunderstorm redevelopment to develop upstream of the local area
during the next couple hours, likely showing little change in
coverage while shifting east due to a substantial amount of dry air
aloft. However, precip activity could very well increase in coverage
along/east of the I-95 later tonight where deeper moisture resides,
before drifting off the coast by daybreak Friday as the cold front
nears the area inland. Shear remains weak during this time frame and
the severe weather threat is anticipated to be low, but modest
instability (SBCAPE around 1500-2000 J/kg) could support loosely
organized showers/thunderstorms capable of producing strong wind
gusts, especially near the beaches. Light southerly flow and clouds
in place ahead of the front favor mild temps overnight, with lows
only expected to reach the low 70s inland to mid-upper 70s near the
coast.
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&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY/...
An elongated axis of upper level low pressure will build across the
Northern Plains/Great Lakes and New England region during the first
part of the near term with low amplitude troughing pressing down
through the Mid Atlantic and southeast states. Surface boundary is
still looking to gradually slip down through the region during the
course of day Friday and will knock temperatures down a few degrees
from where we have been the last few. But the more noticeable impact
will be lower dewpoint/drier air gradually spreading into the
southeast region through the course of the day. Precip chances look
minimal, although there could be a few pop-up showers along the
boundary Friday afternoon particularly across parts of southeast
Georgia where higher dewpoint air/instability is expected to reside -
although that will depend on just where the boundary ends up at that
time.

With drier air/minimal instability across the region, Saturday and
Sunday look quiet at this juncture. But temperatures will continue
to run warm/above normal through the weekend with highs warming into
the lower to middle 90s each day...a good 5 to 10 degrees above
normal for early June. Overnight lows through the period will range
through the 60s overall, to the lower/middle 70s along the
coast.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Low amplitude ridging is looking spread out along the Gulf Coast
region through the first part of next week with warmer/higher
dewpoint air again edging back through the southeast states. Along
with several weak disturbances rippling through the region, daytime
shower/thunderstorm chances are looking to return during the first
half of the week. A stronger/better organized upper level trough may
advance through the Gulf Coast and southeast region during the
middle and latter half of next week bringing higher precip chances,
although longer term guidance solutions do show a fair amount of
spread during that time frame. Temperatures will continue to run
above normal through the period overall, but we could see a bit of a
cooldown mid to late week...depending on how the pattern evolves.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
VFR conditions are expected at CHS/JZI/SAV terminals through 00Z
Saturday. However, there is a chance for a few showers/thunderstorms
to develop late tonight and impact the terminals, with CHS/JZI
seeing the better chances of occurrence and reducing cigs/vsbys
to MVFR levels or possibly lower if directly impacted. At this
time, confidence remains too low to include mention of thunderstorms
in the latest TAF issuance.

Extended Aviation Outlook: Overall VFR conditions will prevail
through the period.

&&

.MARINE...
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Tonight: Winds will surge as a cold front approaches from the
west, but remains inland overnight. A somewhat enhanced
pressure gradient should yield south-southwest winds upwards to
15-20 kt across most local waters, with highest speeds across
South Carolina waters and the CHS Harbor. Seas should also build
up to 3-4 ft. There is a chance for some thunderstorms to
develop near the coast late tonight, producing strong wind
gusts. Special Marine Warnings could eventually be needed.

Friday through Monday: Southerly flow early Friday will veer
westerly Friday night and northerly on Saturday behind a cold front.
However, the pattern quickly reverts back to the typical southerly/
southwesterly flow later in the weekend into early next week. Winds
will continue to run 15 knots or less with seas 3 feet or less.
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&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...None.
SC...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...DPB
SHORT TERM...Adam
LONG TERM...Adam
AVIATION...Adam/CPM
MARINE...Adam/DPB