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678
FXUS61 KCLE 270534
AFDCLE

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Cleveland OH
134 AM EDT Mon May 27 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
A low pressure system over the Midwest will lift a warm front
into the area tonight, followed by a cold front on Monday. The
low will linger over eastern Ontario on Monday night into
Tuesday with another cold front being extended through the area.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
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1230 AM Update...
Showers and thunderstorms are approaching the CWA from the
southwest and will begin to impact the area shortly. The
environment remains worked over from earlier convection with
little instability or shear over the CWA to maintain or
intensify any convection. Gusty winds with the showers and
thunderstorms are the biggest concern this morning as DCAPE
values remain around 800-1000 J/kg. These showers are expected
to continue to spread northeast across the area throughout this
morning, bring up to a quarter of an inch of additional
rainfall.

10:00 PM Update...
Convection has weakened enough to allow the rest of the severe
thunderstorm watch to expire at 10 PM. The forecast area has
been worked over quite substantially with very little
instability remaining and likely subsidence in the wake of the
MCV. Convection over southern Indiana and vicinity will likely
spread northeastward into our forecast area late tonight (after
2 AM) as a broad area of rain showers and isolated to scattered
thunderstorms. Severe weather is very unlikely with the best
severe weather chances remaining well to our south.

Portions of previous discussions...
Showers and storms have developed near Chicago and the main
severe show for tonight has blossomed near St. Louis. This area
will fill in over the next several hours and reach the forecast
area after 2 AM. The round of convection this evening will have
stabilized the local area and do not believe that the atmosphere
will greatly recover to make the overnight round too
problematic, but there is enough spin in the atmosphere and jet
support where storms will need to be monitored through the
overnight.

All indications that this line will continue northeast through
the forecast area and exit the far NW PA counties by Midnight.
So far, there has been rather robust clearing behind the main
line with a dominant cold pool and there should be a distinct
multi-hour break in rain and thunderstorms for the area tonight.
However, another round of more scattered convection will
generate and move into the region, once there is some recovery.
There will be better support further south and southwest, where
there will be a larger recovery window, and storm coverage will
be better outside of the forecast area. However, there will be
some synoptic lifting mechanisms with the low to the northwest,
cold front to the west, and the main upper trough aloft that
should allow for some more thunderstorms to develop into the
forecast area. Severe trends with these storms will be
substantially lower than this afternoon/evening. Showers and
storms will be possible through the first half of Monday until
the cold front passes through the forecast area. The cold front
will be through the forecast area on Monday night and have the
forecast trending to dry.
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&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
Upper level low centered over Quebec will continue to eject multiple
shortwave troughs across the region through the short term period.
These shortwaves will bring multiple rounds of showers and
thunderstorms to Northern Ohio and Northwest Pennsylvania. Best
support for thunderstorms will be diurnally driven as MLCAPE values
rise into the 500-1000 J/kg range Tuesday and Wednesday afternoons.

Highs on Tuesday rise into the lower 70s with overnight lows
settling in the lower 50s. Cooler on Wednesday behind a cold front
with highs in the mid to upper 60s and overnight lows in the mid
40s.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Much quieter and drier weather in store for the long term as upper
level ridging and surface high pressure build over the eastern
CONUS. We`ll be dry through the bulk of the forecast period with our
next chance for precipitation coming on Sunday as another shortwave
approaches the Great Lakes region. Temperatures will climb through
the long term with highs reaching the upper 70s to lower 80s by the
weekend.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z Monday THROUGH Friday/...
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A mix bag of MVFR and VFR conditions will continue through this
morning as another round of showers and thunderstorms currently
observed upstream pushes northeast across the area ahead of an
approaching cold front. Confidence in the thunderstorm potential
at any specific terminal is rather low given the lack of
instability and shear over the area, so opted to handle the
thunder potential in TEMPOs. Primary concern with any
thunderstorms, and even heavy showers, that develop will be
gusty winds as DCAPE values linger in the 800-1000 J/kg range.
Expect those gusts to be between 30-40 knots if they occur. As
the cold front moves east this morning, showers will gradually
taper from west to east allowing for mostly dry conditions today
and conditions to improve to widespread VFR, especially for
terminals along and west of I-77. With this frontal passage,
winds are expected to shift and become westerly and also ramp
up. Along and west of I-77 this afternoon, winds will increase
to 13-17 knots with gusts up to 25 knots possible. Across the
eastern terminals, sustained winds will reach between 10-13
knots with gusts up to 20 knots. After sunset, westerly winds
will weaken to 5-10 knots, except at KERI where they will remain
elevated closer to 12-15 knots.

Outlook...Non-VFR expected with low ceilings and any residual
showers and thunderstorms through Monday night. Periodic Non-
VFR conditions may persist in scattered showers and
thunderstorms on Tuesday and Wednesday.
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&&

.MARINE...
Low pressure centered over the Great Plains will lift a warm front
north across the lake tonight. East winds 15-20 knots this afternoon
turn south as the front lifts northward. The surface low moves
northeast toward the Great Lakes region while dragging a cold front
east across the lake on Monday. Winds turn southwesterly behind the
front while increasing to 15-25 knots with waves across nearshore
waters building to 4-6 feet. A Small Craft Advisory will likely be
needed Monday afternoon and evening into Tuesday. Additionally,
hazardous swimming conditions with an increased risk for rip
currents will be likely on Monday. Lingering surface troughing will
remain draped over the lake through the middle of the week. High
pressure builds in overhead from the northwest by mid week and will
turn winds onshore at 10-15 knots through the end of the week.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...None.
PA...None.
NY...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...Sefcovic
NEAR TERM...Campbell/Saunders/Sefcovic
SHORT TERM...Iverson
LONG TERM...Iverson
AVIATION...Campbell
MARINE...Iverson