-- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. --
376
FXUS61 KCLE 110040
AFDCLE

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Cleveland OH
840 PM EDT Thu Jul 10 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
A weak stationary front will linger over northern Ohio through
tomorrow before lifting northward. A low pressure system will
track through the Upper Great Lakes Saturday night and Sunday,
dragging a cold front through the region. This front will stall
near the Ohio Valley Monday before returning north through mid
week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
-- Changed Discussion --
Made some edits to the Friday forecast to better reflect shower
and storm potential across Northwest and North Central Ohio.
Coverage will hinge on the remnants of convection moving through
northern Illinois this evening. However, some amount of
convection should get into the region and have expanded the PoPs
for Friday and elevated some into the chance category.

Previous Discussion...
Scattered showers and thunderstorms have developed this
afternoon mainly along and east of I-71 across northeast Ohio
into northwest Pennsylvania. The afternoon convection developed
along a weak stationary front and lake breeze from Lake Erie.
Most of the thunderstorms will remain sub-severe but there
could be an isolated stronger storm with downburst winds and
some hail. The steering flow aloft is rather weak so these
storms are moving or drifting slowly eastward. Locally heavy
rainfall may be possible. Most of this afternoon convection will
dissipate around sunset as we lose the daytime heating that is
driven these storms.

The flow aloft will be zonal tonight and Friday. A weak
disturbance in the mid level flow will track across the Upper
Ohio Valley and lower Great Lakes on Friday. This disturbance in
the 500 mb flow will help lift the weak stalled frontal boundary
northward on Friday. We will maintain some slight POPs Friday
into Friday evening. The Day 2 SPC outlook has a marginal risk
for a stronger storm possible over northwest Ohio which will be
closer to the weak frontal boundary. Isolated damaging wind
gusts would be the main threat with any stronger storm Friday.
Most of the convection in our area will dissipate Friday evening
by sunset. High temperatures tomorrow will range from the
middle 80s to around 90 degrees.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
An upper level trough will swing through Upper Midwest into the
Upper Great Lakes Saturday and Saturday night. A weak cold
front will slowly drop down across the Great Lakes region late
Saturday into Saturday night. Ahead of the cold front Saturday,
high temperatures will warm into the upper 80s and lower 90s.
Scattered showers and storms will be possible as this weak cold
front sags into the Upper Ohio Valley Saturday night. The Day 3
SPC outlook has a marginal risk for severe weather and the main
threat would be isolated damaging wind gusts possible. The weak
cold front will slow down and stall out over the area on Sunday.
Scattered to widespread showers and storms are expected mainly
during the daytime heating Sunday. Slow movement of storms this
weekend may cause heavy rainfall and an isolated flash flooding
concern. Highs on Sunday will be generally in the mid 80s.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
A weak frontal boundary will continue to be nearby or just
southeast of the area on Monday. We will mention slight to
chance POPs for diurnally driven convection for Monday. The weak
stalled front will eventually wash out Monday night. An upper
level ridge of high pressure will move from the Central Plains
into the Ohio Valley Tuesday into Wednesday. Warmer and drier
weather will be expected with this upper level ridge moving
across the region. High temps will climb into the upper 80s and
lower 90s with heat index values approaching the upper 90s to
100 degrees. The next chance for rainfall may arrive Wednesday
night with a cold front advancing through the Great Lakes and
Ohio Valley.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z Friday THROUGH Tuesday/...
After some scattered afternoon convection, the radar scope is
quiet this evening and just a few cumulus clouds remain in the
region, which should fizzle with sunset. Therefore, all of the
terminals should start with VFR conditions and light winds.
Residual moisture from rain this afternoon will allow for
opportunities for some fog overnight and some non-VFR visibility
at KMFD, KCAK, and KYNG. Would favor the worst conditions at
KYNG, as there was some rain measured at that airfield. Mixing
will occur with sunrise to disperse the fog and winds will
increase to 5 to 8 kts.

Some remnant rain could enter Northwest Ohio late Friday
morning and have some vicinity showers mentioned at KTOL and
KFDY. There is some low potential that this could actually be
another round of thunderstorms, but there is not enough
confidence in that to put into the TAFs. Elsewhere, some
afternoon cumulus should form and some showers could pop, but
coverage seems very low and too low to put into a TAF at this
time. Winds will generally be south to southwest for most. There
should be a lake breeze that will flip flow to the north at
KCLE and KERI.

Outlook...Non-VFR possible Saturday afternoon into Sunday in
showers and thunderstorms. Mainly VFR expected Monday and
Tuesday.

&&

.MARINE...
With the exception of thunderstorms, winds on Lake Erie are
generally expected to be 10 knots or less through Friday. Winds may
briefly increase to 10 to 15 knots and shift towards the west late
Saturday into Sunday as a cold front moves across the lake. This
could usher in some 2-footers across the central and eastern basin
of Lake Erie Sunday afternoon and evening. There is a low chance of
thunderstorms impacting the western and central basin of Lake Erie
Friday afternoon and evening. Chances for thunderstorms increase by
late Saturday into Sunday as a cold front moves east through the
area.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...None.
PA...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...77
NEAR TERM...77/Sefcovic
SHORT TERM...77
LONG TERM...77
AVIATION...Sefcovic
MARINE...Kahn