-- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. --
940
FXUS62 KFFC 041757
AFDFFC

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Peachtree City GA
157 PM EDT Tue Jun 4 2024



...New 18Z Aviation Discussion...

.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Wednesday)
Issued at 402 AM EDT Tue Jun 4 2024

Showers and thunderstorms once again persisted well into the
night tonight. Thunderstorm activity has either weakened or moved
out of the area as of this writing, but some showers linger E of
Macon and across N GA.

Upstream, an MCS is presently moving across E MS into W AL. High
resolution model guidance weakens convection associated with this
feature as it continues to head E this morning. However,
instability and solar insolation will allow storms to reform with
this feature and lingering outflow boundaries as we head into the
afternoon. Mid-level dry air has exited the area, and precipitable
water values are progged to be around 1.7 inches today. As a
result, expect greater coverage of showers and thunderstorms
today, with 60-70% PoPs across much of the area (mostly during the
afternoon and evening). Although shear values will be fairly low,
it appears there will be a slight uptick during the afternoon as
mid-level flow increases a bit. This may lead to a few more strong
storms, but widespread severe wx is not anticipated. The greatest
threats from storms will be gusty winds and locally heavy rains.
High temperatures today will range from the mid 70s across the NE
mountains to near 90 SE of Macon.

Shower and thunderstorm activity will likely linger well into the
evening again Tuesday night, especially over the E half of the
area. Another MCS is progged to move into AL during the evening,
but convection associated with this feature is forecast to weaken
substantially before entering GA. Low temperatures Wednesday
morning are forecast to range from the mid to upper 60s in most
locales.

An upper shortwave is forecast to approach the area from the NW
during the day Wed. This will lead to more showers and
thunderstorms, with the greatest coverage generally along and N of
the I-20 corridor. High temperatures will be similar to Monday`s
highs. /SEC

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Wednesday night through Monday)
Issued at 402 AM EDT Tue Jun 4 2024

Ensemble guidance is in agreement that a weak shortwave trough
will traverse the Lower MS Valley and OH/TN Valley over the course
of Wednesday night and Thursday. This source of lift/ascent plus
progged 500-1500 J/kg of CAPE and PWAT ~1.5" or greater will
support scattered showers and thunderstorms. Weak flow aloft and
virtually no shear mean that storms will likely be slow-movers,
bringing the potential for locally heavy rainfall, nuisance
flooding, and localized rises on rivers, creeks, and streams. The
potential for widespread severe weather remains low given the
absence of organizational kinematics. That said, as is often the
case in the warm months, colliding outflow boundaries and/or
perturbations associated with the shortwave could support a few
strong/quasi-organized storms with torrential downpours, localized
gusty/damaging winds, small hail, and frequent cloud-to-ground
lightning. Appropriately, SPC has the entire CWA outlooked in a
General Thunder risk.

In the wake of the aforementioned shortwave, flow aloft will
become northwesterly on Thursday night as an expansive ridge
develops over the western two-thirds of the CONUS. Something of a
cold front (more accurately described as a "dry" front) will push
through the CWA Thursday night into Friday as high pressure driven
by the ridge nudges in from the west. Northwest flow aloft will
prevail through the weekend into Monday as the western half or so
of the CONUS remains under the ridge. The long-range ensemble
guidance depicts increasing PWAT on Sunday and Monday as moisture
pools across the Southeast. As a result, there are slight chance
to chance PoPs across the forecast area both days. May need to
keep an eye on the potential for "ridge-rider" MCSs diving
southward within the northwest flow.

Generally speaking, high temps and low temps will be within +/- 5
degrees of climatology through the long-term period. Highs will
be in the mid-80s to lower 90s, and lows will be in the lower 60s
to lower 70s (outside of the mountains). The exception will be
Saturday morning lows, which will be in the mid-50s to upper 50s
for portions of north Georgia.

Martin

&&

.AVIATION...
-- Changed Discussion --
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 151 PM EDT Tue Jun 4 2024

VFR conditions this afternoon with SHRA/TSRA through the
afternoon and early evening hours. Overnight, patchy FEW/SCT IFR
cigs will develop across most TAF sites through sunrise before
improving to SCT MVFR/VFR cigs. Another wave of SHRA/TSRA possible
tomorrow morning through the afternoon across most TAF sites. SW
winds at 5-9KT will become SE/VRB at 3KT or less overnight. SE
winds pick up tomorrow afternoon between 5-7KT.

//ATL Confidence...18Z Update...
Medium confidence on SHRA/TSRA timing. High confidence on all
other elements.

KAL
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Athens          66  86  68  88 /  60  70  70  40
Atlanta         69  87  71  88 /  50  60  70  40
Blairsville     64  79  64  83 /  60  90  80  30
Cartersville    67  87  68  88 /  60  70  80  40
Columbus        70  91  72  87 /  30  40  50  70
Gainesville     67  84  70  87 /  60  80  70  40
Macon           69  90  71  89 /  40  50  40  70
Rome            68  87  69  89 /  60  80  80  30
Peachtree City  67  89  69  88 /  40  50  60  50
Vidalia         69  91  72  91 /  30  60  30  70

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...KAL
LONG TERM....Martin
AVIATION...KAL