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FXUS62 KMHX 292320
AFDMHX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Newport/Morehead City NC
720 PM EDT Sun Jun 29 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
Typical summertime pattern will remain in place over the next
couple of days, with high pressure offshore and troughing inland.
The next frontal system approaches the east coast by the middle of
the week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TONIGHT/...
-- Changed Discussion --
As of 720 PM Sunday...

Key Messages

 - Convection comes to an early end tonight, giving way to clear
   and warm conditions. Shallow fog possible early Mon morning.

Weak and short-lived convective activity from this afternoon is
quickly dying off per radar and GOES satellite trends, and
trimmed back near-term PoPs to account for this trend. Warm and
dry conditions once again expected for ENC. Like this morning,
some spotty shallow fog is possible in usually favored areas but
will be of minimal impact. Lows tonight once again in the 70s
inland, except near 80 along the coast.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY/...
As of 200 PM Sunday...

Key Messages

 - Typical summertime temperatures and thunderstorm chances
   continue

The overall synoptic pattern doesn`t look to change much as we
kick off the start of the July 4th holiday week. This should
lead to another day of near normal temperatures and humidity,
with heat indices of 100-105 degrees, and isolated
afternoon/evening thunderstorms. Of note, guidance suggests
somewhat lower convergence across the area, and along the
seabreeze, compared to today, and I expect the coverage to
follow suite. I would also expect a lowered risk of pulse severe
convection, as the risk of deep, sustained convection appears
lower.

One subtle change on Monday is a regional tightening of the
pressure gradient as a weak frontal boundary begins to approach
the U.S. East Coast. This tightened gradient should help boost
winds over waterways and for areas along the coast. While not
drastically higher, the increased wind will probably be
noticeable at area beaches and for boaters. With the increase in
winds, lows Monday night are expected to be very warm, with
lows near 80 along the coast, and upper 70s inland.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
As of 5 AM Sunday...

Key Messages

 - Hot conditions continue with heat indices 100-105F Tuesday
   afternoon

 - Frontal system approaching the eastern seaboard Tuesday-
   Wednesday increases rain chances mid-week, and could bring
   heavy rain, frequent lightning, and gusty winds.

 - High pressure builds in late week, bringing back the typical
   summertime pattern with sea breeze convection and warmer
   temps

Ridging strengthens offshore, as highs persist in the low to
mid 90s, with heat indices 100-105F likely through Tuesday. The
cumulative effect of several days with high heat indices (and
little relief at night) is something for those working or
spending much time outside to consider as they make preparations
for the heat.

On Tuesday, a cold front should be progressing through western
and central NC. Along this front there will be 1000-2000 J/kg
MLCAPE over central NC, with almost 20kt of deep layer shear and
PWATs well above climo. Long skinny CAPE profiles with enough
shear for organized storm development will result in heavy rain
potential with maybe some stronger wind gusts as well. Most of
the frontal precip Tuesday should remain to our west, maybe
reaching our western most coastal plain counties in the evening.
With better upper level support to the north and west and
unimpressive shear paired with weaker than recently seen CAPEs,
at this point not too concerned about the severe potential
Tuesday evening for our CWA, although SPC does clip our western
zones in a marginal (1/5) risk for Tuesday. Meanwhile, Tuesday a
tightened pressure gradient with the high offshore and the
front approaching from the west will result in a very gusty day
along the coast. With a loss of daytime heating Tuesday night,
storm coverage and intensity is expected to lessen as the front
slowly shifts east.

Wednesday, front comes to a halt over eastern NC, and this will
be the day to watch out for in our CWA should the current trend
hold. Lesser coverage and intensity of precip in the morning
will quickly reinvigorate once we get some daytime heating in
the late morning and afternoon hours. Moist, skinny CAPE
profiles (1000-2000 J/kg) and slow storm motion along a
stationary boundary is a great setup for heavy rain and flash
flooding concerns Wednesday PM. WPC has us in a day 4
(Wednesday) marginal (1/5) ERO generally along and east of hwy
17, where instability along and east of the stalled front is the
best. Severe potential remains limited with weaker shear and
profiles not really conducive to microbursts. Long range
ensemble probs are generally suggesting 1-2" of rain over our
CWA, but at this point these estimates hold little value given
the coarse nature of the models. Over the coming days once more
high-rest guidance is available the envelope of QPF ranges will
be more apparent.

Front may linger along the coast Thursday as it slowly moves
east, keeping chc PoPs in place. Meanwhile, a weak low may form
up along the stalled boundary as it encounters warmer gulf
stream waters, as the baroclinic zone provides enough
cyclogenesis. As the weak low quickly progresses N and E away
from our coast, high pressure builds in with a more typical
summertime pattern returning to ENC to end the work week with
sea breeze convection and warm temps.

&&

.AVIATION /23Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
-- Changed Discussion --
SHORT TERM /through 18z Monday/...
As of 720 PM Sunday...

Key Messages

 - Low risk for sub VFR VIS tonight (10% chance)

Convection quickly coming to an end around terminals and expect
all sites to be free and clear of precip starting at 00z.
Watching a narrow band of sct MVFR cigs developing along the
Crystal Coast, but think this will scatter out with gradual
cooling. LAMP guidance remains highly pessimistic on fog chances
overnight at less than 10%, but OAJ has a history of seeing
shallow fog in marginal conditions and Mon morning may not be an
exception. Confidence too low to mention in 00z TAF cycle for
now.

Typical summertime pattern returns tomorrow in prevailing VFR
conditions, but tstorm coverage looks more isolated than today
and held off on PROB30s for now.

LONG TERM /Monday night through
Friday/... As of 530 AM Sunday...Tuesday through Thursday a
stalled cold front will be impacting the region, bringing
chances for sub-VFR ceilings, heavy rain, and tstorms.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /through Monday night/...
As of 200 PM Sunday...

Key Messages

 - Typical summertime boating conditions through early Monday

 - Winds and seas begin to build late Monday into Monday night

Typical summertime boating conditions are expected through
early Monday, with scattered thunderstorms over the inland
rivers and sounds during the day, transitioning back offshore by
tonight. South to southwesterly winds of 10-20kt will be
common, with seas of 2-4 ft.

Conditions begin to change on Monday as a weak cold front
begins to approach the Eastern U.S. from the west. This should
enhance the summertime thermal gradient, leading to an increased
risk of 25kt winds for a portion of the ENC waters, especially
Monday afternoon through Monday night. Marine headlines may
eventually be needed should guidance continue to show a strong
signal for 25kt winds. With the increased winds, seas are
expected to build to 3-5 ft by Monday evening.

LONG TERM /Tuesday though Friday/...
As of 530 AM Sunday...

Key Messages:

- Strong wind gusts 15-30kt and seas building to 4-7 ft along
  waters Tuesday through Tuesday night

- Heavy rain and tstorms expected to slowly move through the
  region Tuesday night through Wednesday

Tuesday pressure gradient tightens with high strengthening
offshore and approaching cold front, and wind gusts pick up to
become 15-30kt out of the S/SW and seas respond to be 4-7 ft.
Trended winds up by near 5 kts Tuesday night with this update,
well above NBM, with ensemble guidance and deterministic models
all keying in on stronger wind gusts. Of note, ECMWF ensemble
guidance gives a 20-30% chance of gale force gusts developing
along the Pamlico Sound Tuesday night. Winds die down Wednesday
as stalled front is overhead, but this brings heavy rain and
thunderstorms with it. Thursday PM precip is finally expected to
shift well offshore, and high pressure builds in bringing more
pleasant conditions beyond Thursday.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...MHX
NEAR TERM...RM/MS
SHORT TERM...RM
LONG TERM...RJ
AVIATION...MS/RJ
MARINE...RM/RJ