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060
FXUS62 KMHX 110200
AFDMHX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Newport/Morehead City NC
1000 PM EDT Mon Jun 10 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
Seasonable conditions continue tonight and tomorrow as high pressure
builds in from the northwest. High pressure will then build nearly
overhead by midweek, and then shift offshore late this week with dry
and hot conditions possible.

&&

.NEAR TERM /Overnigth/...
-- Changed Discussion --
As of 10 PM Mon...Iso showers cont to skirt the Crystal Coast,
and thus the slight chc pops in effect through tonight are still
on track. No changes with late eve update.

Prev disc...As of 7 PM Mon...Some spotty showers still possible
along the Crystal Coast this evening, though no instability
present, so have removed all mention of thunder for the rest of
the night. No other big changes to ongoing fcst.

Prev disc...As of 3 pm Mon...Improving conditions expected this
afternoon as drier air works into the area behind a cold front.
That being said we could still see some isolated to scattered
showers and thunderstorms this afternoon around the southern NC
coast along the sea breeze. Additionally, some stratiform rain
from convection to our south along the front may skirt the
southern beaches, but should mostly remain offshore.
Temperatures should rebound over the next few hours with
sunshine returning, and top out in the low to mid 80s across the
northern half of the forecast area and the upper 70s to low 80s
to the south.

Generally quiet conditions expected tonight with high pressure
ridging in from the northwest. However, along the coast a few
showers (and even a thunderstorm) are possible overnight as
moisture creeps back northward and more shortwave energy moves
through the longwave upper trough still overhead.

Partly cloudy to mostly clear skies inland should allow for some
decent cooling, and with winds nearly calm as well there will be
a risk for some patchy fog. Best chances for fog will be south
of US 70, however its possible across most inland areas. Lows
will be in the low to mid 60s inland, and the upper 60s to low
70s along the coast.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY/...
As of 3 pm Mon...Somewhat unsettled conditions continue
tomorrow with a dampening upper level trough over the region.
The sea breeze will be the major player under a weak flow
regime, and with low level moisture returning to the coast,
expect showers and thunderstorms to fire along the sea breeze by
late morning. Convective coverage will increase to around
35-45% early tomorrow afternoon, highest along the Pamlico-
Albemarle Peninsula. Showers and thunderstorms will slowly march
inland through the rest of the afternoon, and mostly dissipate
by sunset. Expect highs mostly in the mid to upper 80s inland,
and low 80s along the coast.

A few strong to severe storms will also be possible if deep
updrafts can develop. Though there is little low level shear,
around 50 kts of speed shear around 500 mb will offer the
opportunity for large hail to develop and also strong downdraft
winds.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
As of 3 PM Monday...
Key Points:

- Increased fog potential early morning Wednesday

- Dry end to work week as high pressure dominates.

- Minor heat risk concerns Saturday

- Cold front moves through in the weekend

Tuesday night... Clear skies and calm winds bring fog concerns early
morning Wednesday. While there is plenty of margin for error given
it is 2 days away, early guidance is highlighting
Duplin/Onslow/Jones counties with the greatest radiational fog
threat. In addition, the sfc high located to our NW could bring 12-
18 hours of sustained NE`rly flow over NOBX, resulting in a
potential for sea fog. Tuesday night into Wednesday.

Wednesday to Sunday... The upper trough axis pushes offshore
Wednesday with sfc high pressure building in and NW downslope mid
level flow bringing drier conditions across the region. Kept out
mentionable PoPs through Saturday morning with the expansive mid-
level dry air set up over the region. A northern stream shortwave
pushes across the Mid-West and into the Mid- Atlantic late in the
week while and area of low pressure is progged to develop in the
Gulf of Mexico. There is significant uncertainty whether the
northern stream system will be able to tap into the Gulf moisture
and advect it across the Southeast coast or whether upper ridging
over the western Atlantic will shunt the moisture to our south and
west. A warming trend is expected late week with highs in the mid to
upper 80s Wednesday, steadily increasing through the week and
reaching the low-mid 90s Saturday. Tds will also be increasing
through the second half of the week as the high offshore helps
funnel some moisture in from warm waters. This will make apparent
temperatures in the upper 90s, near 100 degrees Saturday. High
pressure builds in again Sunday. behind a cold front sweeping in
from the north in the weekend. Rainfall associated with this front
is highly uncertain, with much of the long term after Thursday
dependent on how the gulf moisture interacts with the northern
trough.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
SHORT TERM /through Tomorrow Afternoon/...
As of 7 PM Mon...Mostly VFR conditions are expected through the
TAF period. There will be a threat of patchy fog early tomorrow
morning which could reduce visibilities to MVFR levels.

Skies will become mostly clear and calm tonight and allow for
decent cooling. The best low level moisture will remain along
and south of US 70, so that is where confidence is highest for
fog formation, and this could occur as early as 2-3 am.
Thereafter fog may spread farther north and east towards sunrise
in many inland locations. Any fog will dissipate quickly after
sunrise and VFR conditions are expected through the rest of
tomorrow, although afternoon convection could cause some moments
of sub-VFR conditions.

LONG TERM /Tuesday Night through Saturday/...
As of 3 PM Monday...High pressure dominating Wednesday-Thursday
will bring a period of calm winds and clear/mostly clear skies
overnight Tuesday night- Thursday night. This increases the
potential for sub-VFR conditions due to fog, particularly during
the early morning hours.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /Through Tomorrow/...
As of 3 PM Mon...Generally good boating conditions expected
through tomorrow. Winds will be light and variable with onshore
sea breeze flow developing tomorrow.

Winds tonight will be southerly at 5-10 kts, and then become
light and variable tomorrow morning. Localized onshore flow will
develop tomorrow afternoon at 5-10 kts. Seas will be mostly 2-3
ft.

LONG TERM /Tuesday Night through Saturday/...
As of 3 PM Monday...Sub SCA conditions expected through the
long term with variable winds around 15 kt or less and seas
around 2-3 ft.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MHX
NEAR TERM...TL/SGK
SHORT TERM...SGK
LONG TERM...RJ
AVIATION...TL/RJ
MARINE...SGK/RJ