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304
FXUS61 KRNK 091401
AFDRNK

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Blacksburg VA
1001 AM EDT Sun Jun 9 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
A cold front tracks across the area today with scattered
showers and thunderstorms mainly in the mountains. Dry weather
returns Monday. Next opportunity for showers looks like it will
hold off until the end of next week. The week as a whole is
expected to be dry.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
-- Changed Discussion --
As of 1000 AM EDT Sunday...

Key Messages:

1. Scattered showers/storms mainly west I-77 and south of the
VA/NC border as a cold front moves through.

2. Cooler and drier follows beginning tonight.

Surface cold front extends from central PA to eastern KY, then
west into Oklahoma. Front is moving to the southeast with
highest CAPE across the Mid-MS and upper TN valleys. Expecting
showers and thunderstorms along the southern extent of the front
across TN and into the Carolinas. Farther north into western VA
and along the VA/WV border, some scattered showers ongoing just
ahead of the front, but activity is not expected to amount to
too much as westerly winds result in downslope subsidence on the
east side of the mountains...the showers drying up as they pass
east of the Appalachian Divide. The morning RNK sounding showed
a strong subsidence inversion near 725 mb (near 9kft above MSL)
and this should keep deep convection capped in spite of the
warming temperatures east of the mountains. Farther south into
the NC Piedmont the cap is not as pronounced. That said, will
maintain chance for a few showers through early afternoon near
VA/WV border, with a higher probability farther southwest into
the NC High Country and areas west of I-77.

Mid-upper level wave clouds are still expected to spill east of
the mountains indicative of strong winds aloft. A gusty WNW LLJ
is present, with 35 kt winds just off the surface. Increased
gusts slightly today as a portion of this should mix down with
the rain, especially at the higher elevations. Winds decrease
around 9-10 pm.

Severe weather threat looks low with a cap around 7-9kft and
cloud cover. Any rain that does occur should be less than 0.25,
so not expecting flooding problems even if it does briefly rain
hard. Although PWATs are around an inch, there is plenty of dry
air to overcome in the lower levels so probability for measurable
rainfall is relatively low today...most areas to remain dry.

Tonight, much drier air arrives from the north, with dew points
dropping into the 40s and 50s. Overnight lows drop into the low
to mid 50s for the mountains as upslope clouds diminish in the
wake of the dry air. Expect mid to upper 50s for the Piedmont
with any lingering cloudiness shifting south.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
As of 230 AM EDT Sunday...

Key Points:

1. Slightly below normal temperatures Monday and Tuesday.
2. Warming trend starts Wednesday.
3. Mainly dry through Wednesday.

An upper level trough will push a cold front across the area
Monday afternoon. Not much moisture for this front to work
with, therefore will only see an increase in clouds through the
day. The trough is expected to pivot over the region Monday
night into Tuesday and may bring some light showers across the
western slopes of southeast West Virginia Monday evening. While
this trough is in the vicinity, Monday`s and Tuesday`s
temperatures will run slightly cooler than normal.

High pressure builds over the region with heights increasing
aloft Wednesday. Temperatures will warm into the mid 70s to
lower 80s across the mountains and mid to upper 80s in the
foothills and piedmont.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
As of 240 AM EDT Sunday...

Key Points:

1. Warmer than normal temperatures through the period.
2. Hit and miss showers and thunderstorms next weekend.

High pressure will keep the area dry on Thursday an possibly
Friday. Models are bring a cold front into the region Friday
evening, but with not much rainfall. Once the front tracks to
the east, high pressure is expected to wedge south across the
area. Having a hard time believing this scenario as warm season
fronts/CAD events typically do not move through the area without
convection and/or removing a very warm airmass (mid 80s to
lower 90s). For this package, will keep warmer than normal
temperatures with typical diurnal convection Friday into Sunday.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
As of 230 AM EDT Sunday...

Ceilings will lower from west to east in the mountains by late
morning, with MVFR at KLWB and KBLF around 14-15Z with a low
chance for SHRA/TSRA for just a few hours. Elsewhere, expect
overcast VFR with negligible rain chances.

A passing front will will veer west winds to more NW by this
afternoon. Wind speeds generally less than 10 kts early this
morning before becoming gusty mid morning. A LLJ of 30-35 kts at
5kft AGL will translate to surface wind gusts in the 20-30 kt
range.

Average confidence for ceiling, wind, and visibility.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...

VFR for most of the period.

Mainly dry conditions expected Monday through Wednesday.

The probability of precipitation increases again for Thursday.

&&

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...None.
NC...None.
WV...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...SH
NEAR TERM...PM/SH
SHORT TERM...RCS
LONG TERM...RCS
AVIATION...SH