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895
FXUS61 KBGM 130727
AFDBGM

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Binghamton NY
327 AM EDT Thu Jun 13 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
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High pressure and dry conditions continues for Thursday. A cold
frontal passage on Friday will bring a chance of showers and
strong to possibly severe storms. High pressure builds into the
region with summer-like weather this weekend.
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&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
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315 AM Update...

Some valley fog has developed for mainly areas east of I-81,
where there were some clouds hanging around yesterday and had
cleared out in the evening. Fog is expected to dissipate soon
after sunrise. Thursday will be warmer and dry with high
pressure sticking around for one more day. Highs in the low to
mid 80s expected.

Chances for rain showers and strong to possibly severe storms
remain for Friday as a front approaches. Instability parameters
look similar with every model run; 0-6 km shear remains around
50 knots, with CAPE values between 500-1000 J/kg. These showers
and storms appears to progress quickly, with storm development
likely to occur in the morning over Central NY, move south and
eastward through the afternoon, and mostly out of the area by
the evening hours. The main threat with any storm development,
whether strong to severe, will be wind, with possible hail with
convective initiation before these showers and storms form more
of a line heading south and eastward.
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&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
A cold frontal boundary will sweep away any lingering showers and
thunderstorms during the evening. High pressure should fairly
quickly start to build into the region leading to some clearing
Friday night with lows in the 50`s. Winds look to stay high enough
to prevent fog formation at this time. High pressure should remain
in place resulting in a fairly tranquil weekend with highs
generally in the 70`s with 40`s and 50`s for lows.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
The core of the previously mentioned high pressure looks to
strengthen southeast of our region pumping in increasing hot
and humid air into the region next week. This ridge should also
keep any organized frontal boundaries or lifting agents for
showers and thunderstorms north and west of the region. A stay
thunderstorm can`t be ruled out with the hot and humid airmass
over the terrain in our region each afternoon Monday through
Wednesday though. Low temperatures look to trend muggier into
the 60`s and perhaps 70 in a few spots. Ensemble guidance and
modeled 925 mb temperatures both show a high likelihood for most
locations getting into the 90`s by Tuesday and Wednesday.
Current maximum heat index values are currently forecasted to be
around 100 degrees each afternoon.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
VFR conditions expected through this TAF package, with possible
exception to ELM. Although there is low confidence and chance,
some shallow patchy fog can`t be completely ruled out in the
early morning hours.

Otherwise expect mostly clear skies overnight, with some high
cirrus coming in on Thursday. Light and variable winds tonight
will become SW around 8-12 knots Thursday afternoon.

Outlook...

Thursday night through Friday night...Restrictions possible in
showers and isolated to scattered thunderstorms, highest chances
Friday afternoon.

Saturday through Monday morning...mainly VFR.

Monday afternoon...Restrictions possible in showers and
thunderstorms.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...None.
NY...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...KL
NEAR TERM...KL
SHORT TERM...MWG
LONG TERM...MWG
AVIATION...KL