-- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. --
401
FXUS61 KBGM 111856
AFDBGM

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Binghamton NY
256 PM EDT Tue Jun 11 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
An upper level low will slowly shift east of the region today
leading to some clearing. High pressure will then build into the
region Wednesday and Thursday. This will followed by our next
chance for showers and thunderstorms ahead of a cold front on
Friday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
8 am update...

Cloudy skies continue over the majority of our region this
morning. Clouds won`t start to break up until midday. Increased
sky cover. The rest of the forecast looks good.

previous discussion...
Only minor changes with the sunrise update, previous discussion
below.

A broad upper level low will gradually shift east of the
region through tonight. However, coupled with
northerly/northwesterly flow enough moisture looks to be trapped
to keep clouds around most of the day. The lift with the upper
level low may still be sufficient for a few sprinkles or
isolated showers but any QPF looks very light. Thanks to the
clouds temperatures will struggle to reach the mid and upper
60`s today.

Clouds will still be slowly clearing out tonight. Enough
clearing looks to occur for some patchy fog formation given the
fairly light winds. High pressure builds in for Wednesday
yielding warmer temperatures and more sunshine with temperatures
likely well into the 70`s.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
-- Changed Discussion --
255 PM Update...

The short term starts off warm with weak ridging ahead of a
through in the Great Lakes region. The trough begins to move
into our region Thursday night into Friday but with a jet max
moving in behind the trough, the wave will likely be flattening
out with weaker lift. Still warm air advection Thursday night
will help lead to some elevated instability so a few isolated to
scattered thunderstorms are possible late Thursday into early
Friday morning. Instability is weak aloft but 30 to 40 knots of
shear may help a couple of cells to strengthen with small hail
possible. Low level inversion in place will make it tough for
any severe wind to mix to the surface.

Friday, the shear continues to increase in the afternoon with
good probability of 0-6 km shear greater than 50 knots but the
surface trough looks to be east of the region by the late
morning into the afternoon and with a lack of a trigger, storms
may not develop. There is still uncertainty with the timing of
the 500 mb trough so if it slows and moves through later Friday,
there is a better risk for severe storms in the afternoon.
Forecast hodographs show most of the shear is above 3 km so the
main severe threats with the storm will be hail and wind. Dry
air advecting in aloft will help with dry air entrainment in any
storm helping to lead to the risk of microburst and downburst
with any deeper storm if they form.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
-- Changed Discussion --
255 PM Update...

The long term starts off with NW flow advecting in dry air and
with sunny skies, it will likely be both warm and dry despite
the cooler air advecting in aloft. Much stronger ridging begins
to build in Sunday with temperatures rising above average for
this time of the year as well as higher dew points advecting in.
Chances of precipitation were bumped up to at least slight
chance for the afternoons next week with the heat and humidity.
Ensemble average 500 mb height are around 588 dm starting Monday
with deterministic models getting up over 590 dm which is about
2 standard deviations above climatology for June so it will be
getting toasty. One thing to watch is where the edge of the
Bermuda high sets up as we could end up in the ring of fire with
daily rounds of thunderstorms next week but most ensembles keep
the edge of the ridge north of us leaving us hot and humid.
-- End Changed Discussion --


&&

.AVIATION /19Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
740 am update...

Mainly MVFR cigs across the area. SYR, ITH, and BGM could drop
to IFR cigs until 14z. Some drizzle is possible this morning.
ITH may drop to MVFR vsbys until 14z. Ceilings will slowly lift
today so that AVP and ELM will be VFR by 16z and the rest by
20z.

Clearing is expected tonight as high pressure moves in. Late
tonight the question is whether fog forms or stratus. Have MVFR
valley fog at ELM late tonight which may drop to IFR. Other
sites have less confidence so left VFR.

Winds today northwest at 4 to 7 kts. Tonight winds light and
variable or calm.

Outlook...

Wednesday through Thursday...Mainly VFR. Morning fog at KELM
possible Wednesday.

Thursday night through Friday night...Restrictions possible in
scattered showers and thunderstorms, highest chances Friday
afternoon.

Saturday...mainly VFR.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...None.
NY...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...MWG/TAC
NEAR TERM...MWG/TAC
SHORT TERM...AJG
LONG TERM...AJG/KL
AVIATION...MWG/TAC